I’ve spent half the season getting after Christian Parker for how easy it’s been to throw on the Dallas Cowboys defense.
I went through all 32 defenses over the first five games, then again over the four games from Green Bay through Indianapolis. Dallas went from 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt to sixth.
I thought the coverage was better, but I wouldn’t have guessed sixth.
Over those two stretches, the Cowboys went from dead last in yards allowed per play to 15th. What I wanted to know was how a defense could improve that much and still make me nervous every time the other team gets to third-and-5.
Why Third-and-5 Bothers Me
We watched as the Cowboys held the Packers to 57 rushing yards on 26 carries. Jordan Love completed 23 of 41 passes, took three sacks and threw a pick. Before the kickoff at Lambeau, those numbers would have looked good.
Then I saw Green Bay convert five of seven third downs when it needed four to six yards.
Philadelphia went four of six in those situations the next week. So did Arizona, and if we add Indianapolis, that’s 13 conversions in 20 tries. Only Pittsburgh and Carolina gave up a higher percentage on third-and-4 through third-and-6 over those four weeks.
Give the offense a few more yards to go and I like Dallas’ chances. When opponents needed seven or more, the Cowboys got stops 20 out of 25 tries.
That’s when I went back to the Colts game. Indianapolis finished 3-of-13 on third down. Parker’s best third-down result of the last four. Seven of those were third-and-7 or longer, and the Colts went 0-for-7. They faced that middle distance that gives Dallas so much trouble one time.
Sixteen More Throws, Six Fewer Big Plays
If we look back to the first five games, opponents threw 140 passes against Dallas and completed 17 for gains of at least 20 yards. Over the next four games, teams threw 156 and hit 11.
That jump moved the Cowboys from 31st to 11th in how often they gave up a long completion. Quarterbacks also went from completing 72.1% of their throws to 59.6%.
Up front on the defensive line, it took Dallas 29 dropbacks to get a sack through Week 5. Since Green Bay, it’s taken 14. The Cowboys have also picked off a pass in four straight games after going five weeks without one.
When Daniel Jones got the ball back with a chance to win, I was thinking about how easy Gardner Minshew went 80 yards. Then Caleb Downs picked Jones off, and all Dak had to do was take a knee.
Parker deserves credit for that finish as much as he deserved the heat for Arizona.
Arizona’s Other 26 Carries Bother Me
The run defense climbed from 32nd to 20th in yards allowed per game. I would feel better about that jump if opponents stopped running the ball against the Cowboys. Teams went from running 33 times a game to just over 25.
Dallas was giving up 5.1 yards a carry early, and not its 4.8. That 0.3 moved the Cowboys three spots from 29th to 26th.
Tyler Allgeier’s 63-yard touchdown is the run everyone remembers from that game, but even when I took it out, Arizona still had 139 yards on 26 carries. The Cardinals averaged 90 rushing yards in their eight other games.
They beat that number by 49 yards against Dallas’ defense, even with me giving Parker and his defense a do-over on the long run.
What I’m Watching Against San Francisco
The 49ers come in averaging 135 rushing yards a game, and I’ll be watching that first-down handoff. I want to see where it leaves the defense. Four or five yards and San Francisco can go right back to it.
If Dallas stuffs the first-down run, I want to see whether San Francisco can throw its way out of second-and-long. A month ago, I expected somebody to get open for 20.
The down we will all be wanting to see for this defense will come late, with Dallas protecting a lead. If it’s third-and-8, I trust Parker to get the ball back to Dak. Get me a stop on third-and-5 and I will feel a whole lot better about what’s changed since Green Bay.
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