Dak Prescott has been a lightning rod of a topic this offseason with him set to enter the third year of his rookie contract. Typically, franchise quarterbacks on rookie deals will get their extension somewhere just before the last year of their rookie deal, which makes 2018 a very important year for the young signal caller.
Let me preface this article by stating that I'm a believer in Dak Prescott. I think he's poised for a really good season.
He may not have the most arm talent in the NFL, but he has enough. It's the intangibles that have me ready to follow Dak Prescott for the next 10 years as the quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys. You know, those things that don't show up in the stat book. Leadership, perseverance, drive to improve, and an ability to take care of the football are the things that have me backing Dak.
Now, I was also a big Tony Romo homer as well, so don't take anything in this post to be directed in any way toward Tony Romo. It ain't about that. This is about what Dak has done and can do in 2018. That's all.
Dak Prescott took the world by storm during his rookie campaign, leading the team to a 13-2 record before playing only two series in the season finale against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Sure, it didn't end the way we all would have liked as the offense got in a hole early to the Green Bay --Aaron Rodgers' -- Packers in the divisional round, but Dak's intangibles and a great game by Dez Bryant led a furious charge over the final three quarters as they nearly completed the comeback.
If it weren't for a miracle play from Aaron Rodgers to Jared Cook, there's a good chance the Dallas Cowboys would have gone on to the NFC Championship.
So close, and yet so far away.
Looking at that 2016 season, Dak Prescott had the fourth highest completion percentage in the NFL at 67%. Only Sam Bradford, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan had a better completion percentage than Dak.
No quarterback who played in 13 or more games had fewer interceptions that Prescott's four. Only Tom Brady, who played in 12 games that season because of his #deflategate suspension, had fewer interceptions with two. Colin Kaepernick played in the final 12 games for the San Francisco 49ers and also had four interceptions.
Don't bring up Kaepernick's QB ability, Don't bring up Kaepernick's QB ability, Don't bring up Kaepernick's QB ability.
Phew, that was a close one. Now back to the quarterDak you came here for.
Dak's quarterback rating of 104.9 was third that season behind the two quarterbacks who played in the Super Bowl; Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. It was better than Aaron Rodgers, who is considered by many to be the best quarterback in the NFL.
In fact, if you remove the week 17 game against Philadelphia, where he only attempted eight passes, Prescott's quarterback rating goes up to 105.6.
Over the first 24 games of his career, his passer rating was greater than 90, 17 times. Over the last eight games of 2017, that happened only twice.
Prescott's passing yardage wasn't great, but it was more than Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota, and Alex Smith. Still, he nearly hit the 4,000-yard mark with 3,667 in 2016. Remember, he played only two series against the Eagles in week 17.
He was the rookie of the year for very good reasons. He won, put up good numbers and was efficient in leading the Dallas Cowboys offense.
Over the first 24 games of Dak Prescott's career he averaged 228.5 passing yards per game, which is consistent with his rookie year production at 229.2 yards per game. Again, if we remove the week 17 game against Philadelphia in 2016, his rookie season yards per game would be 242 yards per game.
Because of the Atlanta Falcons game, Prescott showed a severe lack of trust in his protection on the left side of the offensive line the rest of the season. And for good reason because it didn't exist!
In the first half of 2017, he had only thrown four interceptions and that occurred in three games over weeks 2-5. Prior to the Philadelphia Eagles' game in week 10, Prescott had a string of four straight weeks without an interception.
From weeks 10-17 of 2017, Prescott had more interceptions (9) than he had in the first 25 games of his career (8).
The last thing we need to discuss is his sack total.
In 2016, he was sacked 25 times. Over the final eight games of 2017, he was sacked 22 times. Obviously that number is inflated by the Atlanta game where he was sacked eight times.
That's a huge difference.
Only seven quarterbacks who played in more than 12 games for their team were sacked fewer. Tom Brady, Derek Carr, Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eli Manning (?!?!?!), Marcus Mariota, and Kirk Cousins.
In 2017, only 13 quarterbacks were sacked more times than Dak Prescott's 32.
Comfort level makes a difference for a quarterback and for the first 24 games of his career, Prescott was kept relatively clean. Over the last eight games, he was under duress non-stop.
Yes, the final seven games of Prescott's 2017 were bad. You ever see a baseball player get up to the plate when he's in a slump and it just looks like he's pressing? That was Dak Prescott in the second half of last year.
Nothing was working and he was pressing to make anything work and a lot of times it didn't go well. Of course, drops by his receivers certainly didn't help.
So, when we look at Dak and we're looking to project his future play, we have to make a decision, is he the player from the first 24 games of his career or the player from the final eight games of 2017?
Just going to leave these splits here for you to peruse (courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com).
Did you know that before the week nine assault and battery by Adrian Clayborn with Chaz Green as an accomplice that Dak Prescott was on pace to rush for 10 rushing touchdowns in 2017?
In each of his first two seasons in the NFL, Dak rushed for six rushing touchdowns. So, while you may think his passing touchdown mark isn't all that exceptional, consider that he'll get you at least half a dozen scores with his legs.
Does Dak Prescott have weaknesses, absolutely, most quarterbacks do. His mobility, however, is a huge strength to his game.
Not only can he move well and run well, but he's big and strong. He can take on DBs and safeties in the secondary and has enough agility to make people miss. And unlike Robert Griffin III, Dak knows how to slide.
Cowboys Roster Subtractions
Jason Witten and Dez Bryant are gone from a passing game that had become stale and stagnant. No disrespect to those two guys, who had tremendous careers with the Dallas Cowboys, but Dez Bryant wasn't working anymore and Jason Witten was losing effectiveness.
You didn't have to watch the All-22 game film to see it either.
Whether it was an age-related decline or it was the lack of chemistry between Dez and Dak or both, the connection was inconsistent.
Still an effective player, Jason Witten was experiencing age-related decline. He just wasn't getting open with as much regularity as he had earlier in his career.
What can we say, age happens.
While those are the most obvious changes to the offense, it could be argued that Dak not having to worry about getting Dez the ball could be a positive for his development.
Dez is like a shooting guard in basketball who needs to have the ball in his hands and be the primary option for scoring. Dak is more of the point guard who wants to get the ball to the open man regardless of their standing on the team.
With the Bryant and Witten departures, the Dallas Cowboys have 219 targets to fill. That's nearly half of Dak Prescott's passing attempts that will have to be redistributed. Who steps in to fill the void remains a big question, but there are capable players on the roster, for sure.
Cowboys Roster Additions
First and foremost, Dak Prescott will have his running buddy back without having a suspension looming over him. There's just something about having your best friend in the huddle. When he's not there, it makes a difference. Ezekiel Elliott will be available for all 16 games this season -- barring injury -- and that will make the offense better.
Changes to the Offensive Line
Tyron Smith is getting healthy, but back issues are always around. They don't ever "heal," they just become more manageable. The improvement they made along the offensive line was in adding two guys (Cameron Fleming and Connor Williams) who are immediate upgrades as backup tackle options.
Cameron Fleming was the starting right tackle for the New England Patriots during their Super Bowl run, while Connor Williams was an All-American left tackle his freshmen and sophomore years at the University of Texas.
Connor Williams will start at left guard, which is an upgrade over Jonathan Cooper and will improve the protection Dak Prescott receives from the left side of his offensive line. Better protection means better pockets from which to throw from.
If Tyron Smith or La'el Collins were to suffer an injury, they are in better shape to manage their absence than they were in 2017 with Chaz Green and Byron Bell.
Changes to the Wide Receiver Group
The other thing they did this offseason was bring in several guys who use quickness, speed, and route-running precision to get open, as well as a wide receivers coach who preaches route running technique above everything else.
Michael Gallup, Allen Hurns, Deonte Thompson, Cedric Wilson, and even Tavon Austin are quick wide receivers who use that quickness and route running ability to get open.
Adding them to Cole Beasley gives the Dallas Cowboys a stable of receivers who will create a lot of easy and efficient completions for Dak Prescott.
He's always been a "take what the defense gives you" quarterback, but with Dez, he had to launch too many 50-50 balls to make that relationship work. It was obvious that Dak was never comfortable with the arrangement.
Putting it All Together
I'm operating under the assumption that Dak Prescott is the player we saw over the first 24 games of his career. Because of that, my projections will mostly gather from that time frame, given that he'll have better depth to offer him protection if there were an injury along the offensive line.
On the passing yardage front, I'm going to say Dak Prescott stays around his first 24-game average -- minus the 2016 week 17 Eagles game -- that has him at roughly 236 passing yards per game. He'll probably throw for 235 to 245 yards per game.
The Dallas Cowboys are a run-first team and they will use the run to set up the pass. It's unlikely that Dak will throw the ball 40 times a game and have a ton of 300-yard passing games, but he'll flirt with 4,000 yards passing and come up just shy.
As for touchdowns, Prescott has thrown a touchdown at a rate of 1.56 per game (excluding the week 17 game in 2016 where he played only two series).
At that rate, over a 16-game season, that puts him at about 25 passing touchdowns. He was on pace for 32 touchdown passes in the first half of 2017, and that severely dropped off over the last eight weeks when the offense seemingly fell apart.
He's rushed for six touchdowns in each of the first two seasons of his career, but in 2017 was on pace for 10 rushing touchdowns over his first eight games of the season. 10 rushing touchdowns for a quarterback would be a tremendous season, it's only happened six times since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 and only twice since 2003; both by Cam Newton.
It's unlikely Prescott would have reached that number, but had the offense stayed in decent shape over the second half of the season, eight rushing touchdowns for 2017 wouldn't have been out of the question.
Projecting Dak Prescott's 2018 Performance
Like I said with Ezekiel Elliott a few weeks ago, it's difficult to project what's going to happen in a football game. The game flow and game plan both have an effect on what a player's contribution will be to his football team.
Here's my educated guess about what I think Dak Prescott will do in 2018.
Final Projections: Goes 325/490 for 3,776 yards and 27 touchdowns, 50 carries for 300 yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 6 interceptions with a passer rating of 102.
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Again, I see Dak Prescott as the quarterback we saw for the first 24 games of his career and think he can return to that level of play. Especially with an improved offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott available for all 16 games.
I know some of you are going to tell me I'm drinking that Silver and Blue Kool-Aid, and maybe I am a bit, but when you look at the numbers he put up over the first 24 games of his career, you can't help but see a good and capable quarterback.
They can and will win games with Dak Prescott.
Seahawks’ Tight End Will Dissly Flying Under the Radar
The Seattle Seahawks are in need of a big win this weekend to stay a game or two back of the NFC West leading Los Angeles Rams. The Dallas Cowboys hope to extend their one game winning streak to two, but to do that, they'll have to win certain matchups on both sides of the football. One player that the Dallas Cowboys will have to be aware of and contain is rookie Tight End Will Dissly.
With Doug Baldwin injured in week one and out week two, other players have had to step up in their lead wide receiver's absence.
Brandon Marshall and Tyler Lockett are the names that most everyone will recognize, but Dissly, is the name that Cowboys Nation should keep an eye on come Sunday.
Dissly, drafted in the fourth round of the 2018 NFL Draft out of the University of Washington, came into the season with a reputation as a blocking back. Dane Brugler, of The Athletic, had Dissly ranked 98th overall and as the ninth ranked tight end in the draft. Just one spot behind Dallas Cowboys rookie Tight End Dalton Schultz.
Here is what Brugler had to say in his 2018 NFL Draft Guide.
"A one-year starter at Washington, Dissly spent his first two years at Washington on defense and his final two years on offense, lining up inline and wing in the Huskies’ offense. He was a blocker-first and receiver-second in college, which was a role he embraced with his hard-nosed toughness and competitive edge. Dissly uses his upper body power and base strength in unison to control the point of attack, displaying the core flexibility and length to keep defenders busy. While he flashed reliable hand/eye coordination and run power after the catch, he lacks the route-running experience or athletic deception to consistently uncover. Overall, Dissly is a project as a pass-catcher, but he will contribute early in his NFL career as an inline blocker and sixth offensive lineman."
Dane Brugler - Dane Brugler's 2018 NFL Draft Guide
To say that it comes as a surprise at Dissly's start to his rookie campaign would be a huge understatement. A Brugler notes, there was a chance he'd contribute early as a blocking specialist, but was thought to be a project in the passing game. He's been a big play threat in the first two games of the season, already taking the lead in Seattle Seahawks TE snap distribution at 65%.
Among tight ends, Dissly's is tied for 12th in the NFL in targets with 10, tied for 17th in receptions with six, fourth in the NFL in receiving yards, tied for first with 2 touchdown receptions, third in yards per reception at 24.5, third in yards after the catch with 90, is tied for fifth with five receptions for first downs, sixth in yards per route run, and hasn't dropped a pass this season. He's averaging five targets, three receptions, 73.5 yards, and a touchdown per game. He's been targeted twice out of the slot and has two receptions for 36 yards and a touchdown while playing 46% of his snaps from the slot.
When Seahawks Quarterback Russell Wilson has targeted his rookie tight end, he has a passer rating of 143.8.
He's been way more than they could have hoped.
Here's what SB Nation' Seattle Seahawks blog Field Gulls had to say about Will Dissly after the Seattle Seahawks week one loss to the Denver Broncos.
"Hot damn! Who saw that coming? Was that Will Dissly or a prime Jeremy Shockey? 3 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown for someone drafted primarily for his blocking abilities. Seattle has a new weapon on offense, and I doubt anyone saw that coming."
Mookie Alexander - Field Gulls, SB Nation
It's likely that nobody, including the Denver Broncos or the Chicago Bears, saw Dissly's breakout coming this soon. Now with it on tape, the Dallas Cowboys will have their eye on Will Dissly.
Russell Wilson doesn't have a ton of established -- or still good -- wide receivers at his disposal, but Will Dissly looks like a fourth round steal for the Seahawks.
The Dallas Cowboys' linebackers will be tested on Sunday.
Four of Dissly's six receptions have come against linebackers, including a 34 yard reception (19 yards after the catch) against Chicago Bears' Linebacker Danny Trevathan and a 66 yard reception (52 YAC) against Denver Broncos Outside Linebacker Bradley Chubb.
The Dallas Cowboys seem fully capable of matching up with good receiving tight ends as Jaylon Smith showed on Sunday. Smith showed an ability to run with Odell Beckham Jr. in coverage on Sunday. No small task. We know that Sean Lee is good in coverage. Leighton Vander Esch's best trait coming out of Boise State is his coverage ability. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Dallas Cowboys matchup Xavier Woods and Anthony Brown with the athletic tight end when he's lined up in the slot.
How the Dallas Cowboys defense does in coverage against the rookie tight end could be a major key to the game. With names like Brandon Marshall, Tyler Lockett, and Rashad Penny to keep an eye on, someone like Will Dissly could be easily forgotten.
You're going to hear his name called on Sunday. Let's just hope it's more for what he did weeks one and two.
Xavier Woods Among Cowboys with Something to Prove in Seattle
The Earl Thomas trade rumors have been relentless this offseason. We've heard about them. I've written about them, and for better or worse, they just won't stop. No doubt Dallas Cowboys Safety Xavier Woods has heard them as well.
When Woods went down with his hamstring injury and as Earl Thomas continued his hold out, the clamor for Thomas grew louder and louder.
Per reports, it looks like Woods is set to make his 2018 debut. With a good game against the Seattle Seahawks, he can put a silence to the trade rumors.
I've been a proponent of making the deal for Earl Thomas all offseason. From the time he came running down the tunnel toward the Dallas Cowboys locker room, I've been all aboard the Earl Thomas hype train. Opportunities to add All-Pro players don't come along very often and if you're hoping to win football games in the short term, like the Dallas Cowboys are, you make the move.
My opinion isn't a knock on Xavier Woods, who was good as a rookie last year. He was especially good when asked to play in the slot early in the 2017 season. It has more to do with Woods still being a bit of an unknown and Thomas being a known quantity.
Xavier Woods has shown potential to be a really good safety in this league. In college, he played a lot of single high safety and played it very well. He has a knack for making plays on the football and can be a game changer for the Dallas Cowboys.
If the Dallas Cowboys can come away with a victory in Seattle, facing the player that the Dallas Cowboys have been linked to for months, and Woods has a good game in the process, then all of this will go away.
Heading into Sunday, Xavier Woods isn't the only player on the Dallas Cowboys roster who has something to prove.
Two Wide Receivers
The Cowboys added another wide receiver this week when they resigned free agent Brice Butler. I agree with Inside The Star Staff Writer Jess Haynie that adding Butler doesn't make a ton of sense, but it definitely adds question marks to the wide receiver room, in particular wide receivers Terrance Williams and Allen Hurns.
These two wide receivers were expected to be the starters on the outside and the primary targets, aside from Wide Receiver Cole Beasley, and yet, they've failed to have much of an impact in either of the two games in the 2018 season.
Take a look at their stat lines.
- Allen Hurns: 5 targets, 2 receptions, 29 yards, 0 touchdowns, on 55% of the team's offensive snaps.
- Terrance Williams: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 18 yards, 0 touchdowns on 25% of the snaps.
Those two are tied for fifth in receptions through two weeks of the season. Wide Receiver Deonte Thompson has found himself as a favorite target of Quarterback Dak Prescott through the first two games and has seven receptions for 60 yards.
With now seven wide receivers on the roster, there are less snaps to go around and with the increase in playing time for Tavon Austin and Michael Gallup, Terrance Williams may have already found himself as the odd man out. Brice Butler complicates things further for Williams and may eat into Allen Hurns snap count as well.
Now it looks like Terrance Williams is facing a suspension. If the suspension comes down before Sunday, he's going to really have a hard time finding a role on this team when he comes back.
Sources: Cowboys WR Terrance Williams faces suspension stemming from May arrest for public intoxication https://t.co/of11Xlb7wD via @sportsdaydfw
If he comes back.
Defensive End Making a Comeback
Things started out really well for returning Defensive End Randy Gregory. During the preseason he flashed the tools that made him a highly coveted player before his failed drug test at the NFL Combine.
Unfortunately the start of his 2018 season was derailed due to a concussion early in the Carolina Panthers game forcing him to miss week two.
In his place, Taco Charlton emerged as an impact player on the right side of the defensive line. Charlton has played the most defensive snaps of any defensive end through the first two games of the season; DeMarcus Lawrence included. Taco went from a 73% snap share in week one to an 83% snap share in week two. It's obvious that he's earned his snaps and the coaching staff wants to get him on the field.
This doesn't even begin to mention the contributions by rookie fourth round pick Dorance Armstrong, who like Charlton, saw a 10% snap increase from week one to week two and played really well when in the game.
This is a bit of a problem for Randy Gregory. Yes, he flashed in the preseason and early in the Carolina game, but the NFL is a "what have you done for me lately" league and Gregory hasn't done much of anything in the regular season, yet.
Coming into the Seahawks game, Gregory is going to have to earn back some of those snaps. By all accounts he has a chance to be an elite defensive end on the right side of the Dallas Cowboys defense, but he has to prove that he can stay on the field and effective when on it.
He needs to shine in week three.
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Who are your players with something to prove heading into the week three matchup with the Seattle Seahawks? Let us know in the comment section.
How The Seattle Seahawks Have Increased Importance In Cowboys’ Lore
You can't talk about this decade's Dallas Cowboys without discussing the Seattle Seahawks.
In 2012, when Golden Tate took out Sean Lee on a crack-back block and the Seahawks embarrassed a Cowboys team who had just defeated the defending champion New York Giants, we saw which of the two teams was truly ready for the big stage.
In 2014, as Rolando McClain intercepted Russell Wilson and the Cowboys clinched a critical road victory, we knew that Dallas was a legit contender.
In 2015, when Seattle finally came to Dallas and rendered the return of Pro Bowl receiver Dez Bryant meaningless in a 13-12 win, the then 2-5 Cowboys were sent further into a Romo-less abyss.
And, in 2017, Dez Bryant's key drops and Dan Bailey's missed field goals during a horrendous home loss to the Seahawks on Christmas Eve might have sealed each of their fates for the following offseason.
The most important moment in this Cowboys/Seahawks history, however, occurred during a preseason game. A meaningless preseason game which turned out to be the most meaningful day in recent Cowboys history.
Cliff Avril dragging Tony Romo down from behind, effectively ending his career, and kicking off the roster massive turnover we have seen the last two offseasons. From Dak Prescott, to a brand new secondary, to the retirement of Jason Witten, and the cutting of Dez Bryant. All of this change, which put an end to the Romo era rosters in Dallas, began with that hit in Seattle.
Since 2012 the Cowboys, and the rest of the NFC really, have been judged by how they play against two teams: the Packers and the Seahawks.
They have been the class of the NFC, and while we like to think that if the "Dez Caught It" game went how it should have Dallas would've handled Seattle, that will forever be an unknown.
Sunday's game is not expected to carry the franchise-changing implications that some of these other match ups have had. The Seahawks are 0-2 and reeling, with a shaky offensive line and reported distrust throughout the organization.The Cowboys, however, can jump-start their season with a big road win over a winless team that they should beat in the minds of many.
But knowing how things between these teams tend to go, Sunday afternoon may end up having major implications on the rest of the Cowboys' season.
Where this could be the case is in a potential Earl Thomas trade. It's been speculated that Seattle has been hesitant to deal Thomas to Dallas before their week 3 match up, but could be more willing to do so after the game.
Especially if that game is a loss which sends them to 0-3. The Cowboys have been actively pursuing Earl Thomas, and Thomas has certainly made it clear that he wants to be in Dallas. The only party not willing to make it happen thus far, are the Seahawks.
So, this weekend, there is a chance another chapter is added to those franchise-changing moments in Cowboys/Seahawks lore.
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