They say your most recent game of the season is the biggest one.
Well, that’s true this week for the Dallas Cowboys, but it has a little more meaning as they travel to Philadelphia.
Dak Prescott & the Boyz will kick off their biggest test of the season as they visit Jalen Hurts and the 7-1 Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field.
The Eagles currently have the best record in the NFL, just ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs, who fell to 6-2 after a loss in Denver.
Philadelphia poses challenges for the Cowboys that only San Francisco has been able to rival.
We all know how that ended, and we’d soon enough like to forget the 42-10 loss in Week 5.
It does seem so long ago now with the 49ers losing three straight and the Cowboys sandwiching two wins around a bye week.
So how does Dallas prevent what happened in San Francisco from happening in Philadelphia?
That’s what we will be covering today. Keys to victory that won’t guarantee a win, but if accomplished, increase the Cowboys’ chances exponentially.
Keep Prescott Clean
I mentioned in a previous article that Dak Prescott being sacked was beginning to be an alarming stat.
Prescott has been sacked 17 times in seven games, and has been sacked multiple times in five of those seven games.
Philadelphia fields one of the fiercest pass rushes in the league starting with Haason Reddick, who leads the Eagles with 6.5 sacks.
Not far behind him is the defensive end on the other side, Josh Sweat, with 5.5 sacks.
The Eagles’ front also generates pressure right up the middle, as proven by six sacks combined by mammoth defensive tackles Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis.
Dallas is expected to have all starting offensive linemen ready to play Sunday, and they will need to be at their best.
Philadelphia has been susceptible to the pass this year, ranking near the bottom of several statistical categories.
In order for Prescott to take advantage, he needs time to scan the defense to take advantage of the diminishing coverage skills of Darius Slay and James Bradberry.
Dak is more than capable of exploiting the deficiencies in the Eagles’ secondary, and his near NFL best snap to release time will help nullify the pass rush.
Take Away Hurts’ First Read
Philadelphia Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts made huge strides in his play from year one to year two of his starting career.
Hurts’ huge leap in 2022 launched him into the MVP conversation, and ultimately into the Super Bowl where he helped the Eagles offense put up 35 points in a loss.
However, he appears to have come down from the stratosphere as he has seen a decrease in efficiency in several quarterback metrics.
He has also seen an increase in turnovers, throwing eight interceptions and losing three fumbles in only eight games this season thus far.
By comparison, Hurts committed just eight total turnovers all of 2022, and is on pace this season for over 20.
Can anyone guess what the Dallas defense has been adept at the past couple of seasons?
You guessed it. Taking the ball away.
The Cowboys currently sit tied for fifth in the NFL with 13 turnovers, and led the league in that category in both of the last two seasons.
Teams that have been successful in taking away Hurts’ first read on passing plays are the teams that have forced him into turnovers.
If Hurts’ first read isn’t available and he is forced to scan the rest of the field, he is pressured into mistakes.
At Hurts’ disposal is an arsenal of weapons, and a pair of wide receivers that excel at getting off of the line of scrimmage with little defensive resistance.
AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are amongst the top of the league when it comes to wide receiver tandems, and are a tough task for any defense.
In order to eliminate Hurts’ first read, it is imperative that DaRon Bland and Stephon Gilmore be physical at the line of scrimmage to disrupt the route timing.
Forcing Hurts to hold the football in the pocket for that split second will give the Dallas front time to get home.
Dallas is second in the NFL in regards to the time it takes from the snap to generate pressure on the quarterback.
Win On 3rd Down
I believe winning the money down on both sides of the ball ultimately will decide the winner of this game.
As invincible as the Eagles may seem, there is a chink in their armor that the Cowboys appear to be well-equipped to exploit.
Both offenses are a force to be reckoned with on third down.
Philadelphia ranks first in the NFL with an absurd 50% third down conversion rate, while the Dallas offense ranks third right behind them at 47.8%.
The Dallas defense will have it’s hands full, but are no slouches in the third down department.
Dan Quinn’s unit is allowing opposing offenses to convert just 34.5% of their third down attempts, good enough to rank seventh in the NFL.
On the offensive side is where the Cowboys have the advantage, and Prescott can exploit the weakness in the Philadelphia defense.
The Eagles’ defense ranks 25th in the NFL, allowing opposing offenses to convert 43% of their third down conversions.
If Prescott and the offense can win on third down, and Micah Parsons and the defense can do the same on the other side of the ball, Dallas will be in position to win.
Prediction
If you’re one of my loyal readers, you know that I am far from the type of writer/analyst/fan that just blindly chooses the Cowboys to win every week.
I know what my team’s weaknesses are, and how a 7-1 defending conference champion can bring those weaknesses to the surface.
Based on my keys to victory above, I believe Dallas needs to accomplish all three of those things to secure the victory, and I don’t see that happening.
Don’t get me wrong. This will be a close, hard fought game that will come down to whoever can make the most plays in the 4th quarter.
This time around as the home team, I believe that team is the Eagles.
The two division rivals will exchange blows all game.
Ultimately, Prescott will be sacked a little too much for our liking, and the Eagles’ power run game will ice the contest with a late touchdown drive similar to the 26-17 win in Philadelphia last year.
Eagles 30, Cowboys 20.