There is a saying in the NFL, “The next game is always the most important”.
In this case, it definitely is true for the Dallas Cowboys.
They have played several big games this season, and the result of those games is why the Cowboys are in the position they are in today.
There was the Week 5 matchup with San Francisco that didn’t go as planned.
The showdown in Los Angeles versus former OC Kellen Moore also comes to mind, and Dallas pulled off a win that day.
I can also point out the two games versus the hated Philadelphia Eagles that ended up in a series split.
It’s Week 18, the final week of the regular season, and Dallas has a golden opportunity right in their grasp.
With a win in Washington versus those pesky Commanders, Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys can secure an NFC East title and also the second seed in the conference.
Neither of those two accomplishments seemed likely just a month ago when the Eagles appeared to have a stranglehold on the NFC.
Now the Eagles have stumbled to four losses in their last five games, and barring a Dallas collapse in Washington, are locked up as the fifth seed for the postseason.
Today I want to talk about keys to victory for the Cowboys, but it will have a little twist on it since it won’t be a game full of the regular starters for Washington.
Dallas has a history of struggling with Washington at FedEx Field.
For this week’s keys to victory, instead of focusing on what the Cowboys need to do to win, I want to narrow down three things they need to do to prevent a collapse on the East Coast.
Protect Dak Prescott
The Washington Redskins/Football Team/Commanders have been a tough matchup on their home field since the days Troy Aikman was taking snaps under center.
Tony Romo was also a victim of the turf at FedEx Field giving the home team some advantage.
Over the past five games played in Washington, Cowboys quarterbacks have been sacked 22 times.
Washington has always been able to pressure whoever is playing quarterback for the Cowboys when Dallas comes to town, but this time they might find it difficult.
Two of the Commanders’ top pass rushers are no longer with the team after midseason trades.
Chase Young is now with the 49ers while Montez Sweat was shipped off to Chicago so Washington can load up on more draft picks for their new regime.
Despite the Commanders being near the bottom of the league in pressure rate since those trades, Dallas needs to make sure to find a way to keep Dak Prescott clean.
If they can’t, the Cowboys’ offense could be in for a long day.
Slow the Commanders’ Rush Attack
This one is a legitimate concern for this season as well as previous games in recent years.
It’s no secret that the Cowboys have their struggles defending opponents’ rushing attack.
It was on full display against Arizona, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Buffalo, and it’s no coincidence that those four games all resulted in a loss.
It appears they may have found a remedy after much better performances versus Miami and Detroit, but we can’t be certain they’ve solved all their problems.
We need only look back to last season as an example of Washington running through the Cowboys’ defense.
In the 26-6 loss in the 2022 finale, the Cowboys gave up 151 yards rushing on 41 run plays to protect their early lead.
We can also travel back in time to a 2012 finale where a win would mean an NFC East title and an automatic playoff berth for the Cowboys.
Led by dynamic rookie QB Robert Griffin III, Washington shoved the football down the Cowboys’ throats with 274 yards rushing at a whopping 6.5 yards per carry.
A running attack of Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson, and a sneakily athletic Sam Howell can certainly duplicate that if the Cowboys allow them to.
Protect the Football
Winning the turnover battle is a key component of any football game, but it becomes magnified by what is at stake today for the Cowboys.
If yesterday’s game in Baltimore was any indication of the weather, the Cowboys and Commanders can expect some rain and sloppy field conditions.
The Cowboys are far from a run-first team, so a passing game where the receivers can’t get proper footing falls in the Commanders’ favor.
Prescott will have to be decisive and accurate while his receivers do their best to get in and out of their breaks without slipping.
One slip on a slant or an out route could send the receiver to the ground while the ball continues to travel into the defender’s arms.
Along with the possible passing game woes, securing the football in the running game will be paramount.
Tony Pollard, Rico Dowdle, and Hunter Luepke will need to pay extra attention to their ball security.
One turnover could be a springboard for the Commanders’ confidence.
It happened just last season when Washington DB Kendall Fuller intercepted a Prescott pass and ran it back for a touchdown.
That put the score at 13-0, and Washington never looked back.
Game Prediction
I have the Cowboys winning this game, but I don’t believe it will be as easy a task as most assume.
We might not see Dak in his 4th quarter ballcap like we’ve seen in countless blowouts this season because the Commanders will put up a fight.
This is possibly Ron Rivera’s last game as the Commanders’ head coach after another failed season, and new ownership at the top.
Many backups will be playing, and they will fight hard to prove what they can do on the field as an audition for next year.
Dallas wins this game 26-17, but it will take a late touchdown drive to put the game away and send the Cowboys into the postseason as the 2nd seed in the conference.