The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions will face off today at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. A win for the Cowboys would mean they get their first home win of the season, but also means they might get some respect from the media.
Detroit comes in with revenge on their minds after losing a tight game in the same stadium last December after the whole “Dan Skipper reported as eligible” debacle. It’s a matchup of two NFC teams with deep playoff aspirations, and an early season game can be a good benchmark of where they each stand.
There are several storylines surrounding this game, but a Cowboys’ victory will depend on winning these three key matchups.
Dak Prescott vs Detroit’s Safeties
The Cowboys’ offense goes as Dak Prescott goes most of the time. Especially this season, when the Cowboys’ offense has no semblance of a run game. I’m happy that Prescott ranks near the top of the league in passing yards, but also ranking at the top of the NFL in tight window throws isn’t a stat conducive to a successful offense.
Sometimes the offense looks stale and stagnant, but it appears that head coach and play-caller Mike McCarthy might have spiced things up by adding pre-snap motion versus the Steelers. The motion created space for wide receivers like KaVontae Turpin and Jalen Tolbert, who have struggled to create separation for themselves.
Those changes are a godsend for QB Dak Prescott to help him reduce the need for tight window throws. However, the tight window throws I still want to see are the seam routes to WR CeeDee Lamb or TE Jake Ferguson.
In order to complete these throws, Prescott will have to watch the Lions’ safeties. Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch have the only four interceptions the Lions’ defense has caught this season. The tandem is arguably the best safety duo in the NFL right now.
The key to a successful offense, despite the lack of a running game, will be for Prescott to read what Branch and Joseph are doing before every play and adjust to take advantage of the coverage.
Steele/Guyton vs Aidan Hutchinson
Offensive tackles Terence Steele and Tyler Guyton are going to have their hands full with Lions’ DE Aidan Hutchinson. Hutchinson cannot be completely stopped, but he can be contained and held off long enough for the offense to succeed.
It will most likely take help from a tight end or running back, but stopping Hutchinson from wrecking the game by himself is paramount. Those chip blocks can buy Prescott the extra second he needs to find the open man versus the Lions’ 27th ranked pass defense.
Neither Guyton nor Steele have been stalwarts this season, but they each possess the talent to slow Hutchinson enough to keep him from adding to his league-leading 6.5 sack total. Dallas’ bookends on the offensive line need to play their best today if the Cowboys hope to get their first home victory of the season.
Mike Zimmer vs Ben Johnson
Most of the key matchups happen on the field involving the players. However, one of my key matchups this week comes from the coaching ranks. Lions OC Ben Johnson is one of the more creative and innovative offensive coordinators out there.
Detroit is one of the few teams left in the NFL that we can consider a run-first team, and Johnson loves to deploy his lightning and thunder tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
Johnson then uses the success of the run game to set up the play-action passing game that QB Jared Goff is so successful with.
I don’t expect Mike Zimmer to completely neutralize such a powerful offense, but he will need to get creative and get a couple of stops here and there to give the Cowboys’ offense a chance to build a lead.
Making Goff win the game with just his arm is the best chance the Cowboys have of getting off the field. This game cannot be a repeat of the Saints or Ravens game where the Cowboys’ defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed.
The Dallas defense will be without several key starters, and if they ever needed prime coaching from one of their coordinators, it’s today.