The Dallas Cowboys have not finished in the top five in rushing yards since 2019.
A once dominant running game in Dallas has been fading, but this year it took a sharp decline, and it cost the Cowboys in the end.
Last Sunday, starting running backs Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle combined for just 17 carries and 67 yards.
The longest run from either guy was just 11 yards. That will not win you games.
Think back to the best Cowboys teams of the last decade; the 2014 team with DeMarco Murray, in 2016 it was then-rookie, Ezekiel Elliott, and in Elliott's career year of 2018, Dallas won the division and a playoff game.
The numbers don't lie. The Cowboys have been at their best when they have a bell-cow running back taking the load off of Dak Prescott.
It opens up the play-action game, wears out the defense, and kills the clock when it matters most.
Dallas does not have that guy right now. They have a serious running back problem and with their two starters set to hit free agency, they have many questions to answer very quickly.
The Tony Pollard Decison
There was a significant amount of hype for Tony Pollard to take up RB1 by himself for the first time in his career. Unfortunately, that hype fell flat.
Pollard had a fantastic 2022. He surpassed 1,000 rushing yards, averaged over five yards per carry, ran for nine touchdowns, and did not fumble once.
Perhaps most impressively, he did this while only starting four games, as Elliott was still operating at the top of the depth chart.
One year later, Pollard had fewer rushing yards on 59 more carries, three fumbles, and three less touchdowns, while starting all 17 games for Dallas.
That is not what the Cowboys were hoping for.
Somehow, Tony Pollard did not score here. He's so bad around the goal line this season. pic.twitter.com/cKYLYepcL7
— Andy Lang Bets (@BumpSports) December 24, 2023
He played on the franchise tag this season, which means he is set to become a free agent. This leads us to our first big problem.
Can you extend a running back coming off a down-season?
Was his success a product of the change-of-pace dynamic with Elliott?
If you don't re-sign him, who is taking his place?
We have seen how quickly running backs can fall off in this league. Think of Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Austin Ekeler, and dare I say, Zeke Elliott.
The risk is too high to sign Pollard to a multi-year deal, and Dowdle at this point is younger, more affordable, stronger, and is nearing Pollard-levels of explosiveness.
Dallas was not sentimental about the Elliott decision and they should not be here either; it is time to move on from Pollard and start fresh.
Free Agent Options
It is a bit counter-productive to ditch Pollard out of concerns of wear-and-tear, just to turn around and sign a free agent of similar age.
Guys like Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, D'Andre Swift, and Devin Singletary simply do not excite me. None of those guys bring much more to the table that Pollard himself does not bring.
Not to mention, those guys might get equal to or more than what the Cowboys would give Pollard.
J.K. Dobbins is a name that garners a lot of potential; he is coming off an Achilles tear, his second major injury after blowing out his ACL in 2021.
The question for Dobbins is, is he injury-prone or just unlucky?
If Dallas views his medicals as positive, he could absolutely be a target for them in free agency to pair with Dowdle.
While I do view Dobbins as a potential option here, he is not the “golden goose.” That would be Titans legend and three-time All-Pro, Derrick Henry.
Henry is defying father time year after year.
At a position that sees guys fall off in their mid-to-late 20s, “King Henry” just put up 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns in his age-29 season.
Derrick Henry on what's left in the tank: "I'm not even close to done playing. I still feel like I can run for another 2,000, but that's for the future to tell."https://t.co/DqSQIReU9L pic.twitter.com/SyNPrKZ6ZX
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) January 18, 2024
This guy is not done yet, and his bruising running style may be the exact thing the Cowboys need to unlock their rushing offense once again.
A contract for Henry would not be more than two years or so, considering he has now surpassed 2,000 career rushes, teams are not going to commit to him for the long haul.
That works for Dallas though; this is their window and they need a guy like him who can give them one or two high-quality seasons.
Not to mention, they have had interest in Henry, via trade, as recently as October.
2-years, $24M or so is a deal that works for both sides; don't let the salary cap fearmongers fool you, the Cowboys can afford that.
Not only does this move give you a clear RB1, but it also lets you focus on other positions of need in the draft.
Go bulk up the offensive and defensive line in the early rounds instead of going with a skill position.
Building From Within
The move that will generate the least amount of excitement amongst fans may just be the most likely.
Dallas could look at the pieces they have in-house and decide to run it back with those guys. This could include Pollard, or it could be Dowdle and Malik Davis spearheading a young and unproven backfield.
From a risk perspective, this is probably the most risky way to go, but it is incredibly cost-effective and could also hit big.
We see year after year “no-name” running backs burst on the scene, and both Dowdle and Davis have shown flashes.
Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle—A Pinball Wizard#SeizeEverything pic.twitter.com/npXViL5c3y
— Brandon Loree (@Brandoniswrite) January 14, 2024
In this scenario, Dallas likely adds a running back in the later rounds of the draft to fill out the room and have a true camp battle to decide who gets the starting job come September.
Don't forget, that is exactly how the Broncos found Terrell Davis.
However Dallas decides to address the position, they must actually address it. You have to point to somebody and say this is our guy.
No rumors weeks before the season, get your guy in place and instill some confidence into this rushing offense.
