The Cowboys’ defense has allowed opponents to convert 17 of 25 third downs through two games. I want everyone to know that the Commanders game dropped the percentage from 81.8% to 68%.
That drop goes to show just how bad the defense was the first game and even at 68%, it still bothers me more than the 48 points and 783 yards Dallas has given up so far.
If we break this down, the scoring and yardage averages are 24 points and 391.5 yards per game. Are you comfortable with either of those numbers? The third down percentage shows how often Dallas could have gotten off the field but failed to make a stop.
Then we have Christian Parker just two games in to his first defensive coordinator job. He deserves a little more leeway to make corrections. I don’t want this to make everyone think every rough start in Cowboys history should make us feel better about this one.
Some of the defenses we are going to talk about, the defenses recovered, and others stayed bad. We will look beyond their opening points and yards, and it might reveal a difference that matters more than how closely the totals match.
The Cowboys Defense Comparison Leaves Out Two Teams
The comparison circulating includes the 2007,2009, and 2021 Cowboys.
07 Cowboys:
Points Allowed: 55
Yards Allowed: 772
09 Cowboys:
Points Allowed: 54
Yards Allowed: 877
21 Cowboys:
Points Allowed: 48
Yards Allowed: 839
26 Cowboys:
Points Allowed: 48
Yards Allowed: 783
Each allowed comparable points and yardage totals through two games, and all three eventually won the NFC East, but the 2013 and others we will look at didn’t fair as well.
The 2013 Cowboys allowed 48 points and 791 yards through two games, the same scoring total as this year with eight more yards. That defense finished last in yards allowed and 26th in scoring.
The 2020 defense allowed 59 points and 802 yards in its first two games, then I found that they finished 28th in scoring. The yardage total that year was only 19 yards higher than this year.
I think leaving these two teams out makes the comparison more encouraging than it should be because Dallas has started i this neighborhood and won the division. It has also started here and spent months giving offenses no reasons to worry about them.
The next question is, did those defenses struggle in the same areas?
Third Down and Red-Zone Results Expose the Difference
Here’s what I found opponents did against Dallas through the opening two games.
Dallas allowed 48 points through two games in both 2021 and 2026, and it surrendered 10 third-downs then and 17 now, on only two more attempts. Inside the red-zone, offenses scored four touchdowns in nine trips. This year it’s been five in seven. That matches the results from 2013 exactly.
I found there is a limit to seven possessions. Just one stop would have moved this year’s red-zone rate by 14.3%. The 2020 and 2021 defenses also opened with identical red-zone percentages before finishing very differently.
Still, if you haven’t seen it, this year’s third-down rate is much worse than all three comparisons.
Dallas is Allowing Fewer Yards Per Play
This year’s Cowboys have allowed 5.8 yards per play. Through two games, the 2013 defense allowed 6.38, while the 2021 defense allowed 6.66.
Don’t we think that deserves attention alongside the third-down problems? Opponents are gaining fewer yards per snap than they did those years, even while converting more on third downs.
If you think about it, a defense can allow nearly 400 yards with big gains or by facing more plays. The total alone won’t tell us which problem we’re seeing.
If the Cowboys can maintain their lower per-play yards while forcing more failed third downs, opponents will have fewer chances to get yards.
I believe that would be a much better argument for this defense than comparing it to another team’s September.
What Seperated the Successful Seasons?
The 2009 Cowboys allowed 54 points through two games and only 196 over the next 14 games. The scoring also dropped from 27 points per game to 14.
Dallas finished that year second in scoring defense at 15.6 points per game and opponents converted 35% of their third downs the entire season.
Now let’s look at the 2007 defense. It finished 9th in yards, 20.3 points per game, and a third down percentage of 39.4%.
In 2021, we watched Dallas finish 7th in scoring despite ranking 19th in yards. Offenses converted 34.1% of third downs, and the Cowboys led the NFL in takeaways with 34.
2013 and 2020 defenses allowed third-downs at 43.3% and 46.9%, respectively. The scoring defense those years were 27 and 29.6 points per game.
The two worst scoring defenses in this selected group also had the highest full-season third-down percentage. I can’t say this is a prediction of what this defense will be, but it does give us a problem to watch throughout the season.
New Coordinators Had Different Results
I did a little digging into the coordinators of these defenses. Five of these six seasons featured a newly hired Cowboys defensive coordinator: Brian Stewart in 2007, Monte Kiffin in 2013, Mike Nolan in 2020, Dan Quinn in 2021, and Christian Parker now.
If you don’t recall, Wade Phillips became the defensive coordinator in 2009, but Dallas already ran his defense. He also increased his involvement in 2008. I think this is different than bringing in a new guy.
Only Brian Stewart and Christian Parker took this position as their first NFL coordinator job. Stewart had Phillips above him, who was probably calling the plays, but Stewart was still the defensive coordinator.
I feel like Parker’s growing pains belong in this discussion, but that’s a different story. So is the fact that Kiffin and Nolan were new in Dallas and still had terrible defenses.
I say we give Parker more time without trying to compare his defense to the 2009 and 2021 teams. The lower yards-per-play is a good thing. The third down conversations are not.
To earn more trust, Dallas needs to keep the yards per play down and start stopping teams on third down. That’s what I will be keeping an eye on the next few games.
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