The Atlanta Falcons are coming to town this Sunday and I’m sure everyone remembers last season’s game against this Falcons squad. The Dallas Cowboys overcame a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit and came out on top 40-39.
Behind all the late-game heroics for the Cowboys and mistakes for the Falcons was fantasy football glory. Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan both accounted for four total touchdowns. There was a surplus of yards through the air and on the ground. Perhaps, this week will be more of the same?
It has the potential to be, and that is why the showdown slate on DraftKings for this game looks to be a fun and exciting ride. With that said, let’s look at this showdown breakdown.
CeeDee Lamb ($13,200) Lamb is coming off a disappointing game against the Broncos. He secured only two of his nine targets for 23 yards.
The good news is that he did have nine targets and has eight or more targets in his last three games. In two of those games, he has gone over 100 yards. In a game that has the highest over/under this week, it is smart to roster the highest targeted player on the Cowboys. Lamb has generated a 22.2% target share of passing plays for Dallas this season.
Atlanta has allowed 17 passing touchdowns this season, and according to PFF, allows a catch of 15+ yards on 25% of targets to opposing wide receivers. Lamb has the potential to have a huge game.
Kyle Pitts ($12,300) Pitts is a big play waiting to happen. He has 11 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. The Cowboy’s defense has given up 34 passing plays of 20 or more yards. That is the sixth most in the NFL this year. The Cowboys also play a lot of man coverage which bodes well for Pitts. According to PFF, He has registered the third-highest grade against man coverage this season among all pass-catchers.
The Cowboys are also ranked 22nd against opposing tight ends in DraftKings points per game. Pitts may not be the elite option that CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott are, but he offers similar upside at a discount.
Matt Ryan ($10,600) Matt Ryan is coming off winning the NFC Offensive Player of the Week against a much stiffer defense in the New Orleans Saints. Since week one, Ryan has thrown at least two touchdowns in every game except one. In his last four games, he has thrown for 330 yards or more three times!
To top it off, Dallas is ranked 30th against opposing quarterbacks in DraftKings points per game. Cowboys have also let four quarterbacks this season eclipse 20 DraftKings points.
This game has an over/under of 54.5 points, so there should be no shortage of offense. The Falcons only have four rushing touchdowns this season (one by Ryan) so, it seems the way to the endzone for the Falcons is through Ryan’s arm.
Look, there’s not much to mention about Gallup since he has only played in three quarters this season, but as I’ve mentioned before, this game figures to be a game with offensive fireworks. In every showdown slate, value is a necessity. Gallup fills that role here. Gallup also has a higher ceiling than most traditional value plays. If AJ Terrell shadows Amari Cooper or CeeDee Lamb, that could mean more room to work for Gallup.
Tajae Sharpe ($600) Sharpe had one target last week. That is not good for fantasy football. However, without Calvin Ridley in the lineup, he has an 11.8% target share. That is good for second amongst wide receivers on the team.
While Russell Gage is the preferred Falcons wideout to own on this slate, he also costs $6,400. Slotting in Sharpe here gives us more room for flexibility and will help you fit in whatever studs you want to go after. Plus, it won’t take much for him to outperform his value at this price.
Ezekiel Elliott ($9,200) The Falcons are giving up the ninth-most rushing yards per game in the NFL this season at a mark of 123.1 yards per game. According to Football Outsiders, they also sport the sixth-worst rushing defense DVOA. To top it off, Atlanta is ranked 28th in DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs this season.
All these stats should have you itching to get Zeke in your lineup. Much like the rest of the Cowboys’ offense, Zeke will be looking to rebound from a disappointing week nine performance, and this Falcons defense is shaping up to be the perfect bounce-back game for the entire Dallas offense.
Dak Prescott ($11,200) If you can fit Dak in your captain spot, do it. That will most likely mean you won’t be able to squeeze in both Ryan and Prescott.
In this game, I am looking to roster both quarterbacks. The Falcons are allowing 2.13 passing touchdowns per game, and according to PFF, they sport an EPA allowed per play of 0.029, good for 26th best in the league. Dak has scored 20 plus fantasy points in five of seven games this season.
In what appears to be a game where scoring will not be hard to come by, it’s hard not to fit in the quarterback of an offense that is first in total yards and third in points.