When the Dallas Cowboys take the field against the Buffalo Bills late Sunday afternoon, they will be looking for their first victory in Orchard Park, NY since 2007.
That 2007 game was the Monday Night Football thriller where the Cowboys overcame six turnovers to win the game on a last-second 52-yard field goal by Nick Folk.
Of those six turnovers, five were interceptions thrown by Tony Romo in his first full season as the starting quarterback.
I bring up that game because that 2007 Cowboys squad is arguably the most talented group of players since 1992, and they still had some wild things happen in Buffalo.
That team finished the season 13-3, and as the number one sees in the NFC.
This Cowboys team is very similar, and while I don’t believe Dallas will commit six turnovers, I do think this game will be close.
Today I want to discuss the keys to victory for the Cowboys, and what they need to accomplish to leave Buffalo with an 11-3 record.
Force Josh Allen Into Turnovers
The Bills’ best player is QB Josh Allen.
He may not be having the best season statistically, but he still is one of the most physically gifted and talented quarterbacks in the world.
Allen has a bazooka for an arm, and at 6’5″ 237 lbs is bigger than many linebackers who try to bring him down.
He does have one flaw: turnovers.
Since being drafted in 2018, Allen has led the NFL in turnovers and is currently on pace to shatter a personal record for turnovers in a single season.
When I say the Cowboys need to force Allen into turnovers, “force” may be a strong word.
Allen has thrown at least one interception in all but two games this season.
Buffalo won each of those games by 28 points, and Allen threw for 594 yards and seven touchdowns on 84% completions.
Before you say those were probably lesser teams, one of those teams was the Miami Dolphins.
If Allen is allowed to have a clean game free of turnovers, he will show you why he was in the running for NFL MVP last year.
Establish the Running Game
I feel like this could be a key to victory for every game, but the Cowboys are first and foremost a high-volume passing offense.
Dak Prescott is playing out of his mind this season, and now is the favorite for NFL MVP if he keeps up this torrid pace.
Long gone are the days of Ezekiel Elliott pounding the defense into submission so Tony Pollard could come in and race right by them.
Dallas doesn’t have that kind of offense anymore, and it’s mainly because they don’t have the mauling offensive line they had in that incredible stretch from 2013-2017.
That isn’t a knock on the current offensive line.
All it means is that they have to get creative with the rushing attack without the ability to just charge ahead at will.
Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer have done a great job of mixing up the formations to create running lanes.
Pollard and Rico Dowdle aren’t the only benefactors of this change in approach.
Seeing other players like CeeDee Lamb and KaVontae Turpin involved in the running game with end-arounds and push passes is another wrinkle McCarthy is attacking defenses with.
The weather in Buffalo will play a factor.
An 80% chance of rain and winds gusting over 30 mph will make throwing the football down the field a difficult task.
Dallas must establish a rushing attack and strategically use the passing game to move down the field.
The Bills rank 19th in the NFL against the rush, so there is an avenue there for the Cowboys to exploit.
Protect the Football
Out of context, this is not something we have had to worry about this season from the Dallas Cowboys.
Dak Prescott, a year after a career-high 15 interceptions in just 12 games, is playing the best football of his career.
After a sub-par start to the season, offensive adjustments catapulted the Cowboys into what is now the top-scoring offense in the NFL with over 32 points per game.
Many have posted Prescott’s projected numbers at the end of the season based on averages of the full body of work.
However, that logic is flawed.
There was an obvious change to the play-calling and scheme after the loss to San Francisco, so I took the averages from the games post-SF to come up with a more accurate projection.
Dak is currently on pace for 4,727 yards passing on 69.7% completions with 40 touchdowns and just seven interceptions.
As well as he and the offense are playing, protecting the football this Sunday will need to be a point of emphasis.
The weather will make it much more difficult to hold onto the football as a ball carrier or for Prescott to grip it and rip it.
Dallas is already behind the eight-ball in this matchup.
Buffalo has home-field advantage, is accustomed to the weather, and honestly is desperate to catch the Dolphins to win the AFC East.
Turnovers would give the Bills’ offense short fields to score, get the crowd involved, and own the momentum moving forward.
If Dallas wants to win, they will need to keep possession of the ball at all costs and limit the mistakes.
Game Prediction
The Cowboys are playing great football.
They’ve won seven of their last eight games, and most of them were in dominating fashion.
Dak in his 4th quarter cap is a scene we’ve grown accustomed to this season, and just makes you think how much better his numbers would be had he played the full games.
As dominant as Dallas has been, Orchard Park in December is a scene they aren’t used to being in.
Crazy things have happened in Buffalo over the years, and I think some of those things will creep up and bite the Cowboys.
The weather will make both teams run the football more, and Josh Allen basically being a running back himself will be the difference.
I believe a desperate Buffalo team finds a way to win a mid-December game at home by the score of 22-20.