Will the Cowboys’ offense breakout against the Lions in Week 6?

The Dallas Cowboys offense has been trying to recapture their Week 1 magic for over a month now. Since that 33 point performance in Cleveland, Dallas has put up between 19 and 25 points, and has a 2-2 record in those games.

You don’t need me to tell you the offense has not been good enough. If it weren’t for Brandon Aubrey, this team would not be where they are today.

BRANDON AUBREY FROM 65 YARDS!

📺: #BALvsDAL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/vWfyguDXdU
— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024

We can point fingers all day long; from Dak Prescott to Mike McCarthy to the front office, everybody deserves some of the blame for the lackluster offensive performances thus far.

However, we can look at this from a more positive angle: The Cowboys’ offense is improving.

In Week 5, Prescott threw for over 350 passing yards, and Dallas had by far their best rushing attack yet, and with the Lions not being known for their defense, an important question arises.

Is the Cowboys’ offense set to breakout against Detroit this week? That’s what we’re here to discuss, so let’s get into it.

Why The Cowboys Offense Will Arrive

Let’s start off with the positive outlook and analyze why there is a perfect storm brewing for an offensive explosion.

Like I said, Week 5 was actually an improvement for the Dallas offense, despite playing a tough defense in even tougher weather.

Statistically, the numbers were exactly where they’d need to be for a high scoring game, but the Cowboys’ offense turned the ball over three times. One way or another, they just can’t seem to get out of their own way.

Dak Prescott has six touchdowns and six turnovers, three picks and three lost fumbles.
— Calvin Watkins (@calvinwatkins) October 7, 2024

That said, turnovers are fairly easy to correct, and they are much easier than fixing an entire facet of an offense, which Dallas may have done in the rushing game.

If Prescott in particular just stops being loose with the football, and they keep the same kind of formula they had in Pittsburgh, watch out.

The Lions defense has been incredibly average against the pass, and while the Week 6 injury report shows Brandin Cooks out again, Jalen Tolbert may be stepping into a new role as a rising star.

Dallas has scored at least 20 points against the Lions dating back to 2002, and they have a massive weather difference from Pittsburgh, home field advantage, some offensive momentum, and a worse opposing defense on their side.

It’s hard to see them scoring less than they did against the Steelers, and it’s easy for me to see a world where they put up 30+ for the first time since Week 1.

Why The Offense Could Struggle Again

We talked about the Lions’ mediocre pass defense, but we did not talk about their run defense.

This season, Detroit has been stuffing the run at an elite level. They have allowed just 363 rushing yards total; only two teams have allowed less.

While that number may be skewed considering they have seen ten fewer rushing attempts than the rest of the league, it’s still an impressive performance so far and one that should concern Dallas.

The Lions have the best run defense in the NFL and have for the last year. The Lions haven’t allowed an RB to rush for 70+ yards in the regular season since Week 16 of the 2022 season against the Panthers.
— Honolulu Blues (@HonoluluBlues_) September 24, 2024

Rico Dowdle got the train moving for the Cowboys’ offense last week, rushing for 87 yards, and it was a huge reason why they ended up beating the Steelers.

As much as Tolbert stepped up in Week 6, we can’t act like the Cowboys receiving corps is all that. They are still reeling from the loss of Cooks, and an overall lack of explosiveness.

If the rushing attack gets shut down, like it has so many times this season, Dallas could be forced once again to air it out.

That has worked in the past, and Prescott did throw for a ton of yards last week, but generally speaking, airing it out has not produced points this year.

The Cowboys’ offense could be stagnated from a running-game-shutdown and a middle-of-the-road passing attack if all goes according to the Lions plan.

The Week 6 Bottom Line

We can talk all day long about stats, rankings, etc., but the fact behind this game and the rest of the Cowboys season remains the same: If they find a way to simply execute on offense, they will succeed.

If Dallas comes out of this game with no turnovers and their lowest penalty count of the season, they will win.

Last week, the Cowboys were flagged for 11 penalties for 89 yards.
This week, they were flagged for 11 penalties for 87 yards.
I guess that's an improvement.

Just kidding, it's not. This is terrible. Reoccurring personal foul penalties reflect a poorly coached team.
— Dan Rogers (@DannyPhantom24) October 7, 2024

Regardless of the Lions rushing defense or the Cowboys’ lack of wide receivers, there will just be no way for Detroit to keep pace if we see a clean and effective brand of football on offense.

The question is, can they deliver that? The answer, to this point, has been no.

Dallas has gotten back over .500, and they are still looking for their first home win. Securing that against a rival, and potential playoff opponent, would deliver a huge boost for the team and the fans.

At some point, the Cowboys’ offense has to click, and Week 6 presents a great opportunity to do just that.