The Dallas Cowboys are sitting with a record of 10-5 on the season as they host the up-and-coming Detroit Lions at AT&T Stadium on Saturday night.
Detroit comes into this game with an 11-4 record, good enough to be tied with San Francisco and Philadelphia for the top record in the NFC.
The Lions clinched the NFC North title for the first time since 1993 and are hoping to carry that momentum into Arlington.
This game is extra special for Cowboys fans.
Our beloved former coach, Jimmy Johnson will finally be inducted into the Dallas Cowboys Ring of Honor several years too late.
This game is extra extra special for me because I will actually be present to watch that halftime ceremony in person.
Saturday will be my first ever regular season Cowboys game, and my first time spending more than a day in the Dallas area since my teenage years.
My family and I are looking forward to passing the New Year’s holiday with a view of the Dallas skyline.
Ok, enough of my personal life. Let’s get down to business.
Today I want to discuss three keys to victory that the Cowboys will need to achieve to make sure Cowboys fans leave the stadium cheering.
Limit Detroit’s Running Back Duo
The Lions rank third in the NFL with 141.1 rushing yards per game.
They have a stout offensive line that has no trouble creating running lanes for running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Montgomery and Gibbs have combined this season for 2,215 total yards and 21 touchdowns.
The potent running back duo shouldn’t be a surprise for those who know where HC Dan Campbell came from.
Campbell spent time on the coaching staff with the Saints when their offense featured the dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.
Montgomery plays the bruising role of Ingram, while Gibbs brings the explosiveness of Kamara.
Explosive might be an underwhelming word used to describe Gibbs’ style of play.
He has 12 big plays this season. A big play is any play that results in more than 20 yards.
The offense’s success relies on the run game’s effectiveness, and Dallas will need to slow that to prevent Goff from picking apart the secondary with play-action passes.
Get Tony Pollard Going Early
How the defense needs to be stout against the run, the Cowboys’ offense also needs to establish their own rushing attack.
Rico Dowdle will be unavailable for this game due to injury, and Dallas has exhausted all three elevations for practice squad RB Malik Davis.
That leaves just two other running backs on the roster to spell Tony Pollard.
Hunter Luepke and rookie Deuce Vaughn will receive some snaps on offense, and Dallas will need them to be effective.
Detroit has been one of the best teams against the run this season, ranking fourth in the league with just 90.8 rushing yards allowed per game.
Dak Prescott is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL when throwing from play-action and letting Pollard cook will lead to good things.
Pollard currently ranks eighth in the league with 886 yards rushing and five touchdowns.
He needs touches early and often to keep the Lions’ defense off-balance.
Win the Turnover Battle
Here’s a stat for you.
There are five games this season in which the defense has failed to record a takeaway.
Can you guess which games those are?
It’s not difficult. They are the only five losses this year.
The defense must generate takeaways. It is directly correlated to wins.
Dallas is tied for fourth in the NFL with a +8 turnover differential while the Lions come in tied for 19th with a -2 mark.
You need to look no further back than last season to understand why forcing turnovers is important.
In a close game, the Lions looked poised to take the lead after a 1st & Goal from inside the Cowboys’ five yard line.
Instead, DeMarcus Lawrence forced a fumble to thwart that opportunity, and the Cowboys went on to win the game.
The best opportunity for a turnover will likely be through the air.
Lions QB Jared Goff has thrown 10 interceptions this season, and five of those have come in losses.
Pressuring Goff into making a mistake is the Cowboys’ best bet.
Prediction
I am picking the Cowboys to win this game.
No, it’s not because I will personally be in attendance, but that is a bonus.
The Cowboys will do a good job of slowing the Lions’ potent rushing attack and forcing Goff to throw the ball.
Micah Parsons and the rest of the Dallas pass rush will get to Goff a handful of times and will force him into mistakes.
Prescott and the offense will come out on fire, and the Cowboys will win convincingly by the score of 34-20 to stay perfect at home.