Yes, we're still three weeks away from training camp opening in Oxnard. The Cowboys still need to add at least one more kicker. And who knows whom the injury bug will bite.
But, based on the draft and some free agent signings, it's time to make our second round of predictions on how the NFC East will shake out.
Since the last time I posted my prognostications, just prior to the NFL Draft in April, a few things have changed. But does it change my predictions? Let's see.
The Original Predictions
Back in April here's how I had the final standings looking:
- Dallas 12-5
- New York 11-6
- Philadelphia 8-9
- Washington 5-12
Both the Cowboys and Eagles addressed key needs in the draft – aside from the Schoonmaker pick by Dallas in the second round.
The Eagles decided to draft the Georgia Bulldogs' defensive line. Which should work out if they take away their players' drivers licenses.
The Giants filled some holes in the draft too. The Commanders? Well, the Commanders are going through new ownership and they are likely a year or two from challenging for even a wild card spot.
So, with the draft, rookie mini-camps and OTAs out of the way, how is the NFC East shaping up? Has anything changed since April's predictions?
Yes and no. Yes, the predicted records will change, but not the positioning. Here's why.
Dallas Cowboys
The only question marks hanging over the Cowboys are: With Schoonmaker getting banged up in non-contact drills, did the curse of second-round tight ends in Dallas claim another victim?
Also, are the Cowboys going to ride with Tristan Vizcaino as their kicker going into the regular season? Or will they bring in a veteran free agent (Mason Crosby, Robbie Gould) or a USFL kicker (Luis Aguilar, Matt Coghlin)?
I know my colleague Mario Herrera Jr. mentioned that some Cowboys insiders believe Brett Mahrer could return back on Sunday. But I myself will lead the charge of the pitchfork and torch brigade on The Star in Frisco if that happens.
Looking at the schedule, with the teams as they are now, I'm upgrading Dallas to a 14-3 finish to win the NFC East.
The three losses? At San Francisco on Oct. 8, at Buffalo on Dec. 17, at Miami on Dec. 24th. Otherwise, a clean sweep over their NFC East rivals and a 6-3 record against the rest of the NFL.
New York Giants
Like Dallas, I'm upgrading the Giants by one win. They'll also lose both games on the road in Miami and Buffalo, as well as both games to the Cowboys and split their series with the Eagles.
It will be good enough for a 12-5 finish and second place in the division. It will also earn them a wild card playoff spot.
Philadelphia Eagles
I counted seven wins last year that the Eagles were fortunate enough to escape with. Their luck is going to run out in 2023.
I can already hear the Eagles faithful yelling: “But, but, muh Jalen Hurts!” Yeah. Tell me how the history of running backs playing quarterback have done over the long term in the NFL.
I suspect Jalen Hurts will not start all 17 games for the Eagles in 2023. He's going to take one too many hits in 2023 and that will be that.
And the 2023 schedule is not going to be kind on the Eagles either. I'll keep the Eagles at 8-9 and in a playoff-missing third place for now.
Washington Commanders
The change of ownership has been long overdue in D.C. But they are playing in a tough division and the Commanders just don't have the firepower to hang with their rivals.
My 5-12 prediction in April might have been overly optimistic. A record of 3-14 might be more on target.
Their best hope for an NFC East win might come in the season finale. A Cowboys team with nothing to play for in Week 18 might just be coasting enough to let the Commanders steal a victory.
