By the time the Dallas Cowboys take the field tonight against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers their season may be officially over.
There is still a chance that they could remain in the hunt for the seventh, and final, playoff spot in the NFC. With that in mind, here’s what the Cowboys have to do.
First, and most obviously, is beat the Buccaneers.
Unfortunately, that isn’t going to be easy to do.
Tampa Bay is riding a four-game win streak coming into tonight’s game. Like the Cowboys, the Buccaneers are a better team away from home.
Tampa Bay is 5-2 on the road this year and the Cowboys are the home team tonight that is just 1-6 at AT&T Stadium.
At 8-6, the Buccaneers are currently in first in the NFC South but need to finish ahead of Atlanta by the end of the year as the Falcons have two wins against Tampa Bay this year.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield and receiver Mike Evans are clicking. In 13 games, Mayfield has 3,329 passing yards and 28 touchdowns.
But he also has 13 interceptions, something Dallas has to make happen if they want to stay in the game.
Evans has only played in 10 games, but he is the team’s leader in receiving yards with 590. He also leads the team with seven touchdowns.
Oh, What Could Have Been
What makes Tampa Bay especially dangerous is rookie running back Bucky Irving.
Irving has 735 yards and six touchdowns rushing along with another 300 receiving.
Irving was drafted in the fourth round in April. With the 25th pick of that round.
That would be one pick after the 24th, the pick that Dallas traded away to San Francisco for Trey Lance, who has held a clipboard for Dallas on the sidelines for the last two seasons.
Stopping the Buccaneers offense is just half of the problem. The Cowboys’ offense needs to keep moving the ball on the ground.
Teams can move the ball through the air on Tampa Bay’s defense.
But Dallas’ woes usually stem from relying on the passing game and abandoning the run.
With Rico Dowdle surging as of late, he had 149 yards last week against Carolina, the Cowboys cannot get away from pounding the ball at the Buccaneers’ front seven.
Against The Bucs
Dallas comes into the game with a 16-6 all-time record against Tampa Bay. But the Cowboys won the first eight meetings between the two teams in the 20th Century.
Since the 21st Century arrived, the series is more balanced, with Dallas just holding an 8-6 advantage.
Oddly enough, 14 of the previous 22 games have been played in Texas and the Cowboys are 12-2 in those contests.
They are 3-1 against the Buccaneers at AT&T Stadium and 9-1 at Texas Stadium.
However, Tampa Bay won the last meeting at AT&T to start the 2022 season, a 19-3 win that saw Dak Prescott suffer a broken thumb.
The last time these two teams met was four months later, in Florida, when Dallas won 31-14 in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. That proved to be Tom Brady’s last NFL game.
The Prediction
In my final preseason prediction post, I had Dallas winning this game to get to 7-8 on the season.
The problem is, the Cowboys are just 1-6 at home this year. They are also far too unreliable to be counted on to play solid football on a weekly basis.
As much as I want to stay with my original pick, I think tonight basically ends the season, mercifully, for Dallas.
Tampa Bay 24, Dallas 17.
Week 16 History
The Cowboys have faced Tampa Bay just once in a Week 16 contest. It was also played in Dallas, back in 2018, and ended with a 27-20 Dallas victory.
Prescott’s short pass to Michael Gallup late in the third quarter proved to be the game winner.
The NFL first began a 16 game schedule back in 1978. The Cowboys are just 24-22 in Week 16 battles since.
They lost last year’s Week 16 game to Miami.
However, Dallas has won its last four home games in Week 16. Their last Week 16 home loss was to Seattle in 2017.
ALL-TIME WEEK 16 RECORD VS. OPPONENTS
NFC EAST
- GIANTS (2-2)
- EAGLES (5-6)
- COMMANDERS (5-0)
NFC WEST
- CARDINALS (1-1)
- RAMS (0-0)
- 49ERS (1-2)
- SEAHAWKS (0-1)
NFC SOUTH
- FALCONS (1-0)
- PANTHERS (2-0)
- SAINTS (1-2)
- BUCCANEERS (1-0)
NFC NORTH
- BEARS (0-1)
- LIONS (1-0)
- PACKERS (0-1)
- VIKINGS (0-1)
AFC EAST
- BILLS (0-1)
- DOLPHINS (0-2)
- PATRIOTS (1-0)
- JETS (2-0)
AFC SOUTH
- TEXANS (0-0)
- COLTS (1-0)
- JAGUARS (0-0)
- TITANS (0-0)
AFC NORTH
- RAVENS (0-1)
- BENGALS (0-1)
- BROWNS (0-0)
- STEELERS (0-0)
AFC WEST
- BRONCOS (0-0)
- CHIEFS (0-0)
- RAIDERS (0-0)
- CHARGERS (0-0)