The quarterback position is the most important in the NFL. We look around the league and we can see the haves and have-nots.
Successful teams have quarterbacks who are at or near the top of the quarterback rankings in the league.
The Cowboys are no different, having Dak Prescott as quarterback he has brought the team back to the upper echelons of the NFL. However, Dak is in a contract year without a new deal in sight.
Having a franchise-type quarterback in the final year of his deal without an extension in place or being worked on is crazy.
Is there a method to this madness?
Could the Cowboys front office see something in a third-string quarterback with a first-round pedigree? The answer is none other than Trey Lance.
How did Trey Lance become a Cowboy?
Trey Lance was drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL draft by the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers traded up to get their, supposed, quarterback of the future.
In the trade, the 49ers sent three 1st round picks and one 3rd-round pick to move up from the 12th overall pick to the 3rd spot in the draft.
Less than three years later the 49ers traded the young quarterback to the Dallas Cowboys for a 4th round pick.
A big “L” for the 49ers, but a possible win for the Cowboys.
Who is Trey Lance?
Trey Lance is a 24-year-old third-string quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys. He has sat behind two veteran quarterbacks, Dak Prescott and Cooper Rush for one season.
Trey did not have the luxury of going through OTA’s with Dallas last year which demolished his chances of moving up the depth chart.
A quarterback with a top-three pick pedigree, who only threw 1 interception in college, who has the athletic ability and arm strength to make any play is sitting and learning behind two grizzled veterans.
So, who is Trey Lance?
In my opinion, he is a Pro Bowl quarterback who has not gotten the chance to prove his worth.
In San Francisco, he was drafted in 2021 and played in 6 games, starting in 2 before injury.
In 2022 he got two starts under his belt and fractured his ankle and Mr. Irrelevant took over and never looked back.
Trey has had bad luck, but the talent is there waiting to be unleashed.
The stats
Above you see the statistics for Trey Lance over two seasons and about 8 games played over those seasons.
Let’s play a game and see what those stats could look like over an entire season.
We will use his rookie season stats and expand those numbers because he only started 2 games.
I used Dak Prescott’s pass completion numbers for his 4th year in the NFL which was 388.
That averages out to about 24 completions a game that year.
I used 24 completions as the base for Trey in this offense.
The 24 completions a game with his rookie year average yards per pass of 8.6 over 16 games is about 3,300 yards.
If I had used the yards after catch average Trey would be around 6,000 yards passing for a season.
I know that’s crazy, but it shows the potential possibilities of Trey Lance in this offense.
The Cowboys’ next move at QB
The Dallas Cowboys front office holds all the cards on the Dak Prescott extension. They can choose to sign him to a multi-year deal or let it ride with Trey Lance.
Trey has been getting amazing reviews from head coach Mike McCarthy.
Coach McCarthy has used the words “master of the system” when talking about Trey.
This is a good sign.
If Trey Lance regains the confidence he showed in college, the NFL could be about to see the next quarterback make his rise.
We got to see what Jordan Love could do with control of an offense, but could Trey Lance have the same type of success?
Or could this hype around Trey Lance be the front office doing their best to set the trade bar high?
If Trey has a good preseason, the Cowboys could turn a 4th-round pick used to get Trey into more picks or a higher pick in a trade with a quarterback-needy team.
They could also see enough to trade Cooper Rush and move Trey up a spot on the depth chart.
If this happens the writing could be on the wall for Dak Prescott.
Keeping Dak as the face of the Dallas Cowboys is the ideal situation in the end and he still garners the talent of a top 5 quarterback in this league, but Trey taking control of the offense would be a sight to see.
The ball is in the hands of Jerry Jones with Dak and Trey. Let’s sit back and see if Jerry takes it to the house or fumbles at the goal line.
If he will sign a reasonable extension, do it now. At worst, he’d be a viable backup the next few years. At least he’d free them from the “no QB signed for next season” pressure. The only reason not to extend any of the QB’s is that they are sure that McCarthy is a lame duck, and they’re going for a hard reset after this season.
The curious thing is, is McCarthy the lame duck or is Prescott? Hard to see both of them go at the same time. It may be McCarthy getting rid of Jones’ pet KMoore is just a step to getting rid of Prescott and making his offense fully functional with his own system and QB. A QB that he doesn’t have to dumb down his system to accommodate.
I can see them moving on from both, especially if the team struggles. A new coach will want his own coordinators, and key players, like QB, to fully implement their vision.
How many times have fans and media lamented Jerry saddling the incoming HC, OC and/or DC with leftovers (coaches or players) from the previous failed regime? Often resulting in a mishmash of players not fitting, or being able to adapt to, the new coach’s or coordinator’s scheme.
We’ve seen 4-3 zone players trying to play 3-4 man, 3-4 man players trying to play 3-4 zone, 3-4 zone players in 4-3 zone, all without the right players for the scheme. The same goes for the offensive side, though at a lesser extent. Garrett/Linehan were all about the running game, stretching the field vertically, back-shoulder throws and a focus on large, tall receivers that could fight for contested passes. Moore was more about gadget plays, bubble screens, and outside runs. McCarthy with his West Coast roots is more about quick reads, timing, accuracy, stretching the field horizontally, receiving out of the backfield, and YAC.
Dak is ill-suited for the WCO with slow/poor post-snap reads, questionable accuracy, and poor anticipation/timing which all stifle RAC.
If they don’t extend Dak and the team struggles (.500 or less), missing the playoffs or another one and done, they absolutely should move on from McCarthy, and Prescott. That why I’d like them to resign Trey Lance now to serve as a bridge with potential for more. And, if he doesn’t fit the new coach/coordinator’s scheme, easier to trade while bringing in QB’s that fit.
No argument here, especially as it concerns Prescott, though I’d prefer to see McCarthy stay, at least for now. I’m not a big fan of the coach, but who would they bring in?
There’s more at play than just tossing money on the table. Not only does a coach have to deal with the meddling of the FO, they have to identify with the established younger players and the new ones coming in.
Recall the lull after the Packer loss? I’m guessing JJones had at least a rebuffed conversation and offer with Jim Harbaugh before he accepted the Chargers’ job (he was my choice). Belichick? Maybe he still has it in him, but the dude is old. In NE, he had his rigid system in place and it began falling apart. Here, there’s no way the players would buy into it. Zimmer? Who knows, maybe he could be the bridge.
The good news, so far, is no contract for Prescott. He is the bottleneck to going farther in the playoffs.
Yeah, I just don’t see Belichick and the Jones boys agreeing on the division of power. Belichick wants total control, even more so than his mentor Bill Parcells did. And, we saw how long that relationship lasted. And TBH, he may recognize talent, but his drafts (and I say his because he supposedly had full control) in New England were average or a bit below. No way would I give him full draft control over Will McClay, and I sure as heck wouldn’t risk alienating or losing McClay over a 72-year-old Belichick.
I’d be down with Zimmer as a fall-back option if they can’t land a better candidate. But, he’s not much younger than Belichick (just turned 68 day before yesterday), and he’s got serious potential to turn off the young kids that are on the roster. Not to mention, he’s likely to tell Jerry and Stephen to take a flying leap if they try interfering with how he’s going about his business.
McCarthy is younger (60) but seems to be falling into the same ruts he lost his job, and his players, over in Green Bay. He changed just enough, and lied about changing even more, to convince the Jones that he had learned from his mistakes. Personally, I think he’s as full of crap as Dak, which may be why they get along, by blowing smoke up each other’s backsides. And, why I think both ought to be shown the door after the season.
I’d really like them to start fresh with new coaches, coordinators, position coaches (not sold on Solari), and core players. Trade Parsons now while he still has value, re-sign Lamb since his skills/attributes translate to nearly any offensive scheme, extend Lance as insurance/bridge, and let Dak and 75% (or more if needed) of the coaching staff walk after this season. Rip the band-aid off (cap and legacy players) and reboot/rebuild with the picks from the Parson’s trade, and whatever they end up with after the season, added to whomever of the young core we have in place that translate to the new staff and scheme.
The time to do that was after the GB game, but now it will have to wait until this season is over. I haven’t done enough research on assistants to know who would be a good fit. I’d hate to see some young unknown (like Garrett was) come in and be either given too much freedom, or not enough. Unfortunately, there’s not an assistant on the team right now with enough experience to take the head job. At least KMoore is gone and hopefully won’t be a consideration.
McCarthy wouldn’t be the worst choice though. His entire time here he has been stuck with either KMoore or Prescott, he hasn’t got to do things his own way. If he could fire Prescott out of a cannon, I’d be okay with giving him the shot to train Lance who, from all reports, has the gray matter to run the full offense. As is, Prescott can only handle a watered down version that sputters against better defenses.
Any way we slice it, this season should be interesting. But, if Prescott does actually finagle another contract from the team, I’m checking out until he’s gone. The Texans are finally doing some good things down in Houston, and it’s refreshing to watch a team that doesn’t press “brand-first” and has that fire to win it all.
as a Cowboys fan, no! Trey Lance isn’t the future of the Cowboys quarterback