The countdown is over and the roster is set. All that remains to be seen is whether the Cowboys have what it takes to reign supreme in the NFC East for the first time since 2023.
While every member of the offense and the defense will have a huge part to play in the coming months, it’s indisputable that much of Dallas’ hopes for the year hinge on Dak Prescott.
The quarterback threw for 4,552 yards and 30 touchdowns last year, totals which put him in the top five of all QBs in the league, but he’ll need to play at a similar level if the Cowboys are to make good on all the optimism surrounding the team in 2026.
Should that come to fruition, then the chances of a first MVP award for Prescott could become a reality.
This is arguably his best window to win the award, but it will all depend on how his performances compare to other elite quarterbacks who have their eyes on the prize.
How prediction markets expect Prescott to perform in key statistics
Although a substantial chunk of the MVP race depends on team performance, statistics also get factored in, especially for quarterbacks.
Passing yards, touchdowns, and quarterback rating (QBR) all play a part, and prediction markets help indicate whether Prescott has a chance of leading all other players.
With yes-or-no contracts paying $1 if successful and nothing if not, the prices set also become the implied probability of an outcome happening. These platforms have grown increasingly popular throughout recent NFL seasons, and with new traders able to claim the Polymarket promo code in 2026, this trend is only set to continue.
For traders looking at whether Prescott could lead the markets mentioned above, the signs are promising.
Brian Schottenheimer’s pass-heavy scheme means that the Cowboys quarterback is expected to be a serious contender to lead all others in passing yards, with an implied probability of 15%, trailing only Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, the market’s favorite. It’s a similar story for QBR too, where the market is much closer.
Prescott’s 9% probability puts him narrowly behind Drake Maye, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, and Jackson, but fewer traders expect the Cowboys star to lead for passing touchdowns.
At 11%, he is firmly in the middle of the pack, despite an impressive 2025.
MVP market puts Prescott in the chase, not the lead
As a serious challenger in all three statistical markets, it’s no surprise that Prescott sits in the lead pack of the MVP market heading into the season.
At 11%, he is second on the board and level with Justin Herbert, just ahead of Joe Burrow and Josh Allen, but he trails current favorite Jackson, whose 14% keeps him clear at the top.
A key reason for that gap is likely the Cowboys’ recent woes in the postseason. America’s Team has failed to reach the postseason in two consecutive years and has not advanced beyond the Divisional Round since 1995, when it last won a Super Bowl.
Most traders will likely be looking at what teams can accomplish in the postseason when judging frontrunners in the MVP race, and Dallas and Prescott’s history is a red flag, even though many believe this is their best chance of success in several years.
For Prescott to go from part of the pack to the outright favorite, the team needs to establish itself as a major threat in the NFC.
How can Dallas bolster Prescott’s MVP credentials?
To do just that, there needs to be development at both the team and individual levels. With regard to the former, the Cowboys must knock Philadelphia off their perch in the NFC East, something that will only happen if the defense shows significant improvement.
That will improve the team’s overall record, a crucial part of any awards race.
On the other hand, Dak needs to become a game-winner.
Media narrative plays a huge role in the MVP race, and if the quarterback produces big plays that turn games on their heads, the volume of voices arguing Prescott’s case will only increase.
Dallas has six primetime games where the world will be watching, and if Prescott shines in those, more will start to believe.
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