I’ve watched CeeDee Lamb make enough ridiculous catches as a Cowboy that you almost expect the hard ones to be the easy ones. Throw it behind him, put a defender in his face, make him twist in midair, it doesn’t matter, he will come down with it.
Then we watch the ball hit him right in the hands and it flops to the ground.
I just don’t understand it. Well, actually I do, because players I coach do the same thing.
CeeDee Lamb gave an explanation for it this week on 105.3 The Fan:
“Every single drop has been always taking my eyes off the ball when the ball arrived because I’m automatically thinking I caught it. It’s just a way of the game humbling me and bringing me back to square one.”
Getting caught thinking about the big play before catching the ball is a problem, but he does know what the problem is and that is the first step. He’s already got his mind seton what comes next instead of securing the ball.
“It’s just really compartmentalizing all the good that I’ve done. It comes with the territory. I just gotta focus up. I’m always thinking about a big play…”
That made me want to go back and look at the numbers because drops can get exaggerated. Drop a couple on national television and everybody thinks you forgot how to catch a football.
CeeDee Lamb’s Drop Rate Was Shrinking
I found on PFF.com’s premium stats that Lamb’s drop rate as a rookie was 10.8% in 2020. It decreased in 2021 to 9.1%, then went down to 5.5% in 2022, before reaching his best year for drops in 2023 at 4.0%.
When you look at that progression, you don’t see a receiver with a drop issue over his whole career. You see a young receiver figuring things out and getting better.
Then something happened in 2024, and we watched Lamb’s drop percentage jump back up to 9.8%. Last season, it barely moved, going down to 9.6%.
What bothers me is he didn’t just have a bad year with drops. He worked out the problem and then somehow reverted back to where he started, and 2023 wasn’t some forgettable season buried in the middle of his career.
Lamb caught 135 passes for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns that year. It was the best season of his career, and his drop rate was also his best at 4.0%.
For his career, his drop percentage hovers around 7.6%.
So, we know that when his drops decrease, he is arguably the best receiver in the league. This isn’t some weird coincidence or conspiracy theory. He just needs to get his head in the game.
CeeDee Lamb Compared to the NFL’s Best
I wanted some context, we all need that, for the 9.6%, because the number itself doesn’t tell us much.
So I compared Lamb with Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njiba, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chris Olave, Stefon Diggs, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith, and Justin Jefferson.
If you take CeeDee out of that group, you will see those nine receivers average right around a 4.0% drop rate. While Lamb was 9.6%. At this point we aren’t talking about some small blip.
George Pickens makes it easier for fans to be mad at CeeDee because Pickens had 131 targets, five drops, and a 5.1% drop rate. More targets less drops.
Let’s not turn this into a Pickens is better than Lamb debate, that’s not what the numbers say. What they do say is Lamb has something he needs to clean up this season.
And he knows it:
“As many times as I’m targeted, the ball should never hit the ground, whether it’s PBU, whether it’s a drop, whether it’s a bad ball, regardless of what it is. Any time the ball is targeted to me, I consider it a catchable ball. I don’t care if the ball is out of bounds. I don’t care if it’s all the way inside.”
How can you not like mentality? No excuses about the quarterback, coverage, timing. Just a guy who knows it’s all on him.
We have even watched CeeDee in training camp catching passes while wearing a beekeeper hood working on his issue. Cutting edge or crazy? Who cares if it works?
Maybe the answer really is as boring as he made it sound. Catch the football, tuck it, then make somebody miss.
We know what Lamb can do after the catch. Now he just needs to catch it first.
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