The 2026 NFL Draft is a few months away and mock drafts have been happening since about December, but who of the top draft experts was the best at picking in the first round?
There will be no reputation bias, no “almost counts”, this is just results.
I compared three of the top NFL Draft experts:
Same grading scale for each one.
Let’s see who had the best luck in round 1 from last year.
How I Graded the Experts
Each analyst was measured three ways:
- Exact pick accuracy (player + team + slot)
- Correct players projected Round 1
- Top-10 accuracy
That gives a full picture of their draft expertise.
Exact Pick Accuracy: The Brutal Category
This is, in my opinion, the most unforgiving category of the three.
Out of 32 picks:
- Daniel Jeremiah — 5 exact hits (15.6%)
- Mel Kiper Jr. — 4 exact hits (12.5%)
- Todd McShay — 3 exact hits (9.4%)
Not one of the draft experts cracked 20 percent.
I don’t see this as a failure, that is just the nature of the beast. One grade can shift multiple picks and wreck slot projections.
Jeremiah led here, but the margin was two picks.
Round 1 Player Accuracy: The Real Board Test
Now we get to what actually matters. How many players did they project in Round 1 who actually went in Round 1?
- Daniel Jeremiah — 23 correct players (72%)
- Mel Kiper Jr. — 21 correct players (66%)
- Todd McShay – 20 correct players (63%)
This metric measures evaluation, not guesswork. Teams move, tiers usually don’t.
Jeremiah showed the strongest overall read on how the league valued this class. Kiper was steady, and McShay trailed slightly but stayed competitive.
When you’re north of 65% on Round 1 projections, that’s legitimate draft work in my book.
Top-10 tier Accuracy: Identifying the Elite
The Top 10 is its own ecosystem where you have premium traits and positions.
Here’s how it graded:
- Daniel Jeremiah – 8-10 correct Top-10 players (80%)
- Mel Kiper Jr. — 7 of 10 (70%)
- Todd McShay — 6-10 (60%)
This is where I found the separation showed up most clearly. Jeremiah consistently identified the elite tier and that matters when projecting quarterbacks, tackles, and impact defenders.
What the Rankings Actually Showed
The 2025 NFL Mock Draft accuracy rankings don’t reveal a runaway winner, but they do show margins.
Jeremiah had the strongest overall performance across all three categories. Kiper remained consistent and McShay stayed in range but slightly behind.
No one dominated, but no one collapsed either.
How This Helps You Pick the Right Mock for 2026
Here’s where this becomes useful.
The 2026 mock season started a couple of months ago, so don’t just follow the big names. Follow the analyst who aligns with what you value.
If you want:
- The clearest read on draft tiers: Look at Round 1 accuracy
- The best identification of elite prospects: Study Top-10 performance
- Precise team-to-slot projections: Focus on final mocks closest to draft night
Me, personally, I’m looking at all three, but if I want the most accurate I will wait for Daniel Jeremiah’s final mock before the draft.
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