Predicting the Cowboys’ 2024 Season: Training Camp Edition

It’s opening day of the 2024 training camp for the Dallas Cowboys out in Oxnard. Which means it’s time for another edition of my way-too-early season predictions. Yesterday, my colleague Mario Herrera Jr. took umbrage with USA Today’s prediction of Dallas finishing 8-9 and in second place in the NFC East.

He’s currently writing his counter-prediction post to that outrage. It sounds like he’s looking at no less than 10 wins, if not 12.

Back in April, prior to the draft, I listed my predicted finishes for the NFC East teams in 2024. I also had Dallas in second in the NFC East, but with a 9-8 record and the playoffs in doubt.

After the draft and the schedule dropped, I did a week-by-week preview of the upcoming season. At the end of each post, I dropped my prediction for that game.

When the dust settled, I had Dallas at 8-9.

Why the drop?

Cowboys Had An Unimpressive Draft, Free Agency

I, for one, was unimpressed with Dallas’ drafting in April. Aside from Cooper Beebe, I think it is going to be one of the poorest classes this century.

Passing on Xavier Worthy in the first round — the Chiefs seemed to think he was worth a first-round pick — and a running back in the second will haunt the Cowboys.

They still could have picked Beebe in the third round and another offensive lineman in the fifth round.

That would have addressed the three greatest areas of need and possibly moved my prediction back into the double-digit win column. But they didn’t. We’ll have to wait and see how that strategy works out for them this fall.

Nor did Dallas do themselves any favors in free agency.

They’ve certainly lost more talent than they have brought in. The lone exception was the signing of Eric Kendricks.

At least they dealt with the gaping hole at middle linebacker Leighton Vander Esch’s retirement created. But they still passed up on other players they really could have used. Mainly because of the mess they’ve made with the salary cap.

2024 Cowboys Schedule: The Wins And Losses

As Herrera rightly pointed out, the USA Today story failed to break down exactly how they arrived at the 8-9 record.

So here’s my week-by-week rundown of the games the Cowboys will win and lose in 2024:

Week 1: @ Cleveland – Loss (0-1)

Week 2: vs New Orleans – Win (1-1)

Week 3: vs Baltimore – Loss (1-2)

Week 4: @ NY Giants – Win (2-2)

Week 5: @ Pittsburgh – Loss (2-3)

Week 6: vs Detroit – Loss (2-4)

Week 7: Bye

Week 8: @ San Francisco – Loss (2-5)

Week 9: @ Atlanta – Win (3-5)

Week 10: vs Philadelphia – Loss (3-6)

Week 11: vs Houston – Loss (3-7)

Week 12: @ Washington – Win (4-7)

Week 13: vs NY Giants – Win (5-7)

Week 14: vs Cincinnati – Loss (5-8)

Week 15: @ Carolina – Win (6-8)

Week 16: vs Tampa Bay – Win (7-8)

Week 17: @ Philadelphia – Loss (7-9)

Week 18: vs Washington – Win (8-9)

Again, this is posted with the caveat that we still have training camp to play out, along with possible trades, free agent signings, and injuries to come.

Rest assured, both Herrera and another colleague, Shane Taylor, think I’ve lost my mind. Last I heard they were checking to see if there was a 25th Amendment here at Inside The Star.

Brilliance Or Insanity

I’ll be the first to admit I could be reading the tea leaves wrong. I don’t think I am, not as the roster stands right now. Especially with the turmoil the team is unpacking as they arrive for camp.

The top three players are in contract disputes.

CeeDee Lamb apparently stayed home when the team’s plane left for California. Reportedly, he won’t show up until he has a new contract either.

Dak Prescott is demanding an extension somewhere north of $60 million a year. A ridiculous ask when compared to Patrick Mahomes’ $45 million a year contract.

Micah Parsons is also sniffing around for an extension, both on and off his podcast, a podcast that serves as a possible distraction. One that a teammate recently called him out over.

Add in a weak running back room, questions about both the offensive and defensive lines, and injury comebacks. And a head coach not having his contract extended despite three straight 12–5 seasons.

I’m just not seeing a team poised for a winning season, much less a title run.

It could all sort itself out in the next few weeks. The Cowboys as a team could suddenly click and get it all together. I’ve seen it happen over the decades.

But right now, as camp opens?

I see an 8-9 team that will miss the playoffs in 2024.

I see a completely different coaching staff and a vastly changed roster showing up in Oxnard in July 2025 too.