You’ve probably spent a lot of the last few days, weeks, or even months looking at mock drafts and other analysis of the 2021 NFL Draft. One group trying to project tonight’s events are the oddsmakers for sportsbooks. What do some of those odds tell us about the predictions for the First Round, and especially the Dallas Cowboys’ 10th-overall pick?
It’s one thing for a bunch of guys to throw out their projections for the draft, such as how Inside The Star did a few days ago. But these oddsmakers have real money at stake in their projections and they do make for intriguing windows into their beliefs about tonight’s event.
For example, there are Over/Under bets on where Cowboys targets like CB Patrick Surtain II, Jaycee Horn, and G/T Rashawn Slater will eventually be drafted. Slater is getting equal odds to go either 9th or above or 10th or below, showing those 9th (Broncos) and 10th (Cowboys) picks have a high projected probability for where he’ll go.
Similarly, Patrick Surtain II is getting better odds to be 10th or above and less if he falls to 11th or below. That’s a clear indication the oddsmakers don’t expect Surtain to get past Dallas at #10.
There’s a little more wiggle room on Jaycee Horn, whose odds are currently fixed at the 12th-13th pick. So while many Cowboys fans want Horn over Surtain, Vegas seems to think that Surtain is a better lock for the Top 10 this year.
Another good one to look at are odds for “First at Each Position.” We currently see Patrick Surtain II the clear favorite to be the first CB taken and Jaycee Horn slightly behind him, and then a huge gap in odds between Horn and Caleb Farley.
Without question, Horn and Surtain are expected to be the top-two CBs in this draft. But if neither of them goes in picks 1-9, the sportsbooks clearly believe that the Cowboys will draft Surtain over Horn.
There’s little arguing Dallas needs a cornerback out of this draft, and likely with their 1st-round pick. Featured articles on the position, such as this one on Patrick Surtain II, have been all over the team’s official website leading up the draft.
So will it be Surtain, Jaycee Horn, or someone else joining the Dallas Cowboys tonight? Hopefully the Cowboys make the right bet with their pick.
