With the 2024 NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, analysts across all media platforms are dissecting the draft picks and poorly attempting to hand out grades without ever seeing players on the NFL field.
Evaluating players based solely on college production is a risky venture and history has shown us that even the so-called experts can be dead wrong about player evaluation.
How many #1 overall picks have been busts? How many late-round or undrafted players have ended up in the NFL Hall of Fame?
Player evaluation isn’t an exact science, but we can use context clues to roughly determine whether or not a player will be successful after college.
A few days ago, ESPN NFL Journalist Matt Miller published an article with his top-100 draft values and the top two on the list feature the Chicago Bears picks of QB Caleb Williams and WR Rome Odunze.
There are several Philadelphia Eagles on the list, headlined by cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean making the top 12.
The Dallas Cowboys were honored four times. Their first selection at #36 on the list and their last locking in the 88th slot out of 100.
#36 OT Tyler Guyton
The Cowboys’ 1st-round pick, Tyler Guyton also tops the list for Dallas’ selections to Miller’s top 100, coming in at #36.
“Entering the draft, the Cowboys had issues at left tackle, running back, center, and linebacker. The front office waited and played the board well, trading back and still getting one of the top tackles in the class.
“Guyton should be seen as a developmental player after just 15 starts in college, but Dallas does a great job identifying talent and coaching it up on the line (as we saw with Tyler Smith before him).”
The massive offensive tackle from Oklahoma was almost a telegraphed pick to the Cowboys based on how they’ve drafted before.
He is raw but he has the traits the Cowboys look for in offensive tackles, standing nearly 6’8″ tall and weighing in at 322lbs with 34 1/8″ arms.
#58 CB Caelen Carson
The Cowboys don’t have another pick in the top-50 of Miller’s article. 5th-round pick CB Caelen Carson comes in at #58.
“Carson was one of the biggest value picks based on where I had him ranked pre-draft. Dallas does a great job playing the board every round and Carson could be the team’s next great day 3 steal given his toughness and instincts.
“Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland have two starting spots locked down, but Carson should be a factor in Nickel and Dime packages.”
While everyone was screaming for a running back with pick 174 in the 5th round, the Cowboys calmly stuck to their draft board, selecting who could be the next late-round star.
Carson will tirelessly be compared to teammate CB DaRon Bland over the next few months just due to the simple fact that he was also a 5th-round pick.
Let’s see him play a few downs before we start comparing him to either of the All-Pros the Cowboys have manning the boundaries.
#68 OT Nathan Thomas
The Cowboys believe they have found another late-round gem in OT Nathan Thomas from Louisiana-Lafayette, and Miller also seems to think so.
“Dallas made three picks along the offensive line, and I could talk myself into Thomas as the best value of the bunch.
“The Louisiana tackle has very good agility, great power, and the upside to be coached into a future starter.
“If first-rounder Tyler Guyton moves to left tackle, I think Thomas is the team’s future on the right side.”
Miller makes an interesting claim here that seems to solidify the belief that the Cowboys did, in fact, draft a steal in the 7th round.
According to Miller, he believes Thomas is the Cowboys’ future right tackle, likely taking over for Terence Steele as soon as Dallas can get out of his contract.
#88 OL Cooper Beebe
Selecting G Cooper Beebe with the 73rd pick in the 3rd round seems to be the consensus favorite pick by Dallas in the eyes of #CowboysNation.
Miller also agrees that drafting the physical and nasty Beebe was a draft value for the Cowboys.
“Dallas was forced to restock on the offensive line after losing Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz in free agency.
“Beebe was a college left guard who did take some snaps at tackle, but don’t be surprised if he moves inside to center for the Cowboys. He has rookie starter ability.”
That is, in fact, the plan for the Cowboys, it seems. To move Beebe to center to replace the departed Tyler Biadasz.
Only time will tell if these players were values, or if the draft evaluation once again failed like it has so many times before.