The holiday season is officially in full swing, which means Cowboys Thanksgiving Day football. Fans will be knee-deep in turkey, pumpkin pie, and camera cuts to Jerry Jones in his suite in just a few hours.
This time, the NFL’s yearly tradition will feature the 2-9 New York Giants heading to Dallas, in a matchup that will hopefully exceed its low expectations.
I’m certain Roger Goodell did not have Cooper Rush vs. Drew Lock/Tommy DiVito in mind when he scheduled this one, but given our reality, we have to look at the parts of this matchup that are still interesting.
With that crazy win against the Commanders under their belt, and the Giants having such a brutal season, the difference between a win and a loss in this one is huge.
The Cowboys Thanksgiving performance will dictate the direction for the remainder of this season.
Win Could Bring Momentum
I have been on the Dallas tanking train for quite some time now. With Dak Prescott out, the roster depleted, and the need for some institutional change, it could be more beneficial to lose hard now, and in-turn secure offseason tweaks and a high draft pick.
That plan, however, took a hit with the Cowboys Week 11 win over Washington. It dropped Dallas out of the top ten of the draft order, sparked Mike McCarthy-extension comments from Jones, and set up a potential winning streak with the Giants coming to town this week.
New York is flat-out struggling, and the Cowboys are the favorites to win this week because of that.
If Dallas is able to capitalize on that and win today, it will mark a significant moment in the 2024 season. It would move the Cowboys to 5-7, just two games under .500, and give them their first winning streak since the Giants-Steelers games.
Inching towards a “run the table” campaign could get interesting quickly, considering the Commanders hold the final playoff spot right now, and Dallas has beaten them head-to-head.
Am I expecting a playoff run from the Cowboys if they win today? No, this roster and coaching staff simply do not have the goods this year.
However, you can’t deny that there will be a momentum shift with a second straight win, and it would make Dallas’s Week 13 bout with the Bengals interesting.
Loss Brings Final Nail In The Coffin
On the flip side of this Cowboys Thanksgiving matchup, an upset loss at the hands of this Giants team would certainly be the final nail in the coffin for this season.
Losing today means the record falling to 5-8, moving back into the top ten in the draft order, and a continuation of the embarrassing home-game losing streak that is currently six losses deep.
From a morale standpoint, I cannot think of a more demoralizing loss for the Cowboys than a Thanksgiving Day loss at home to such a bad team, after beating the odds last week in Washington D.C.
You cannot recover from that kind of position this late in the year, even with Dallas’s late-season opponents lacking firepower.
If they aren’t able to handle the lowly Giants at home, why would they be able to beat the Bengals, Buccaneers, or Commanders in Dallas down the road? All three of those squads are much stronger than New York.
This could also cement the end of McCarthy’s future with the Cowboys; the only reason we heard positivity about his job prospects this week was because of a miracle win against Washington.
Losing today would certainly take the air out of the organization’s sails, but specifically McCarthy’s as he continues to coach for his job.
Week 13’s Bottom Line
This Thanksgiving matchup has a very simple bottom line: both teams’ seasons are likely over, but the loser in this one will have that likelihood cemented.
Both McCarthy and Brian Daboll will not have jobs in 2025 if they don’t turn things around fast, and they can’t do that with a loss today. Somebody is coming out of this thing with their season, and coaching future, wrapped up.
It’s unfortunate that neither team is playing for more than that in such a classic, historic matchup, but perhaps it will give us more time to focus on family and food.
In short, don’t expect fireworks from either side today; whether the winning quarterback is Rush, Lock, or the banged-up DeVito, they won’t be the story of the game.
Expect the defense, especially on the Dallas side, to dominate as these offenses struggle.