It would have been easy to mistake yesterday for a day in the peak of the NFL offseason, considering all the blockbuster moves made. The slew of trades and signings all surrounded the NFC, in particular, and that has caused my Cowboys schedule prediction to change.
Dallas’s schedule is one of the hardest in the league; that’s not up for debate. It’s going to increase in difficulty, however, because they play virtually every team that made a move yesterday.
I still think the Cowboys are set for an improved season, but it won’t be easy. Let’s get into the game-by-game of their 2026 campaign.
Week 1: Cowboys @ Giants, 7:20 CT on Sunday Night Football
Result: Cowboys Win — 31-20 (Record 1-0).
Cowboys – Giants Week 1 seems to be a yearly tradition at this point, and it is one that Dallas does not lose. Yes, John Harbaugh is in town for the G-Men now, and Jaxson Dart seems to be the quarterback of the future, but I have doubts that they are poised for a gigantic turnaround.
Odell Beckham, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and every other wide receiver that was good 5+ years ago may also be there for the Giants, but this isn’t 2016. I see Dallas’s offense going for 30+ and a new and improved defense holding their own.
Week 2: Cowboys vs Commanders, 3:25 CT
Result: Cowboys Win — 35-27 (Record 2-0).
Dallas opens their home games with a matchup against the Commanders, who need a bounce-back year after a disappointing 2025. Unfortunately for Dan Quinn and friends, I don’t see a win here against the Cowboys.
Washington has a lot of new faces, but a lot of holes remain, and I don’t see them being able to slow the Dallas offense enough to win it. Give me another 30+ point win for the Boys here.
Week 3: Cowboys vs Ravens, 3:25 CT
Result: Ravens Win — 28-24 (Record 2-1).
I think the Cowboys’ first loss of the year comes against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Week 3. New HC Jesse Minter is the real deal, and he’ll have his guys fired up for this must-see matchup on Sunday, September 27th.
Jackson will bring difficulty with his elite running ability, much like Jayden Daniels will in Week 2, but I trust the Ravens offense a bit more than Washington’s, and I see their defense posing a stronger threat to slow down Dak Prescott and his wide receivers. 28-24 Ravens in this one.
Week 4: Cowboys @ Texans, 12:00 CT
Result: Texans Win — 23-20 (Record 2-2).
I do see the Cowboys dropping consecutive games against Baltimore and then their in-state rival, the Houston Texans, in Week 4. C.J. Stroud does not impress me, but this elite defense does, and I don’t think Dallas is up to the task of knocking them off.
Expect turnovers in this game, though likely one or two more from Houston’s D than Dallas’s. The X-Factor for the Boys could be Caleb Downs, however.
Week 5: Cowboys vs Buccaneers, 7:15 CT on Thursday Night Football
Result: Cowboys Win — 38-30 (Record 3-2).
Dallas’s offense gets back on track with an explosion on Thursday Night Football against the Buccaneers. I also see Tampa getting over 30 in this one, but without Mike Evans, their offense does not scare me as much as it used to.
This will be a much-needed reset game for the Cowboys after two very difficult matchups. The Bucs are not a cakewalk game, but you’ve got to win this one after the previous two.
Week 6: Cowboys @ Packers, 7:20 CT on Sunday Night Football
Result: Packers Win — 27-24 (Record 3-3).
Much to my dismay, I just don’t see the Cowboys getting a win over Green Bay on the road. That’s an incredibly tall order if you know the recent history between these two, and I don’t see it changing, especially in Lambeau.
It should be close, as these games always go, but they also always end in a Packers win (or a tie?), so I’m choosing to stick with reality and history with this prediction. GB likely takes it on a walk-off field goal.
Week 7: Cowboys @ Eagles, 7:15 CT on Monday Night Football
Result: Eagles Win — 24-20 (Record 3-4).
The Eagles, with no A.J. Brown and a seemingly descending Jalen Hurts, don’t concern me as much as they used to, but on the road, I still see them getting this one over the Cowboys. These teams often split the season series, and I think that happens again this time.
Falling to 3-4 would certainly cause a big moment for the Cowboys, and with the trade deadline looming, I wonder if this would cause the seemingly more-aggressive front office to bring somebody in.
Week 8: Cowboys vs Cardinals, 12:00 CT
Result: Cowboys Win — 40-17 (Record 4-4).
Dallas needs a win against Arizona after falling under .500, and I think they’ll get it in big fashion in Week 8. Yes, the Cowboys weirdly struggle against the Cardinals traditionally, but I think this AZ team is really poised for a terrible season.
They will not have the offense to keep up with an overdue Dallas team, which could lead to this getting out of hand quick, fast, and in a hurry.
Week 9: Cowboys @ Colts, 12:00 CT
Result: Cowboys Win — 34-26 (Record 5-4).
Indianapolis is another team that flat-out does not worry me too much, even with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. I think this is a game the Cowboys need to win if they want to get back into the postseason, and I trust that they’ll get the job done.
Winning this one moves them to 5-4 right at the trading deadline, so we could certainly see some movement to help continue their push after a win in Indy.
Week 10: Cowboys vs 49ers, 4:25 CT
Result: 49ers Win — 27-21 (Record 5-5).
Much like the Green Bay game, I just don’t see the Cowboys being at a place yet where they can knock off the 49ers. Is it possible that San Fran comes into this game with their usual slew of injuries, and Dallas can exploit that into a win? Definitely, but you can’t bank on that.
This evens up the Cowboys’ record at 5-5 heading into the middle of November, so to say it’s becoming crunch time for Dallas would be a bit of an understatement. They’d need to really turn on the jets in this scenario.
Week 11: Cowboys vs Titans, 12:00 CT
Result: Cowboys Win — 35-24 (Record 6-5).
Similarly to Arizona, this is a must-win game for Dallas against a team that isn’t quite ready for showtime. Tennessee has a young quarterback with serious potential in Cam Ward, and Robert Saleh is trying to piece things together elsewhere, but winning in Dallas is a bit ahead of schedule for them.
The Cowboys will know how big this game will be for them to take care of, and I think they come out swinging en route to a 10+ point victory. After this comes Turkey Day with a bitter rival.
Week 12: Cowboys vs Eagles, 3:30 CT on Thanksgiving Day
Result: Cowboys Win — 30-23 (Record 7-5).
I told you I thought Dallas would split the season series with Philly, and that means a win on Thanksgiving Day in AT&T Stadium over the Birds. Boy, wouldn’t that be a really fun victory to enjoy in between the turkey and the pumpkin pie?
The Cowboys win this one by a touchdown, and move to 7-5 on the year with a chance to really start improving that record heading into December. The only problem? They’ve got a really tough pair of games to start the Christmas season.
Week 13: Cowboys @ Seahawks, 7:15 CT on Monday Night Football
Result: Seahawks Win — 28-25 (Record 7-6).
That’s right: Dallas goes from a Thanksgiving showdown with the Eagles to Monday Night Football in Seattle against the reigning Super Bowl champions. As much as a win here would really fire everybody up, I don’t see it happening.
Seattle’s defense and coaching are really special, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba might feast on a Cowboys secondary that still needs improvement. Dallas goes into their bye week at 7-6.
Week 15: Cowboys @ Rams, 3:25 CT
Result: Rams Win — 35-27 (Record 7-7).
The bye week may help their odds a little bit, but I simply can’t argue in good faith that the Cowboys will go into Los Angeles and knock off this Rams team. The Myles Garrett blockbuster from yesterday only reinforces their standing as a “superteam.”
🏈Rams receive: Myles Garrett
🏈Browns receive: Jared Verse, a 2027 first-round pick, a 2028 2nd and a 2029 3rd.
LA will likely dominate the regular season and go into the playoffs as the one seed. Dallas isn’t there yet, which means they’ll fall back to .500 at 7-7 after two brutal west coast matchups.
Week 16: Cowboys vs Jaguars, 7:20 CT on Sunday Night Football
Result: Cowboys Win — 34-31 (Record 8-7).
I struggle to find a scenario where this isn’t a make-or-break game for the Cowboys this season. It comes at a crucial time in the calendar, it’s an opponent that will likely be a playoff team, yet beatable, and it’s at home. They’ll need to dig deep for a win in this one.
Ultimately, I think it will be close, but Dallas will pull it out to keep the season alive at 8-7. Jacksonville’s offense is nasty, and will put up a fight; this could even end in overtime.
Week 17: Cowboys vs Giants, 12:00 CT
Result: Cowboys Win — 30-20 (Record 9-7).
Again, spare me all the Giants hype: I think Dallas sweeps the season series against them as they often do. This one is a home game, and it could be the catalyst that keeps the division champions’ hopes alive, and I think the Cowboys take advantage.
They’d improve to 9-7 with a win here; that should be enough to either get them a Wild Card spot or stay in contention for one, and it gives them a chance to improve to 10-7 in the season finale, which could win them the NFC East.
Week 18: Cowboys @ Commanders, TBD Start Time (Flex Game)
Result: Cowboys Win — 33-24 (Record 10-7).
I have the Cowboys finishing the 2026 season on a three-game winning streak to get to 10-7, potentially winning them the East, and at least giving them their first postseason appearance in a few seasons. I think Washington is out of contention at this point, which helps Dallas’s chances.
On the high-end, I think Dallas could reach 11 or 12 wins, and on the low end, this could be more of an 8-win team. At 10-7, that falls right in the middle and feels right for this roster.
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