As we enter the week that the NFL conference championship games will be played, the Dallas Cowboys can only look on in wonder.
How did this happen?
How did another season full of hope, arguably the most hope Cowboys fans have had this century, once again end in disappointment?
Instead of preparing for the San Francisco 49ers for the third year in a row, the Cowboys have to watch the Detroit Lions stand where Dallas should have been standing.
The Cowboys emerged victorious over those Lions in a huge Week 17 matchup marred by the “failure to report-gate” scandal to secure the 2nd seed in the conference.
A home Wildcard matchup with the red-hot 7th seed Green Bay Packers was supposed to lead to a guaranteed home game in the Divisional round.
What’s more infuriating is knowing that this Cowboys team and its nine All-Pro selections should have been the NFC favorite right behind San Francisco.
The grades prove that point, and that’s the series I will be kicking off today.
Please join me, Cowboys Nation, in all your pain and anger to review 2023 grades by position group.
When you see just how good they are, you just might get angry all over again.
All grades and stats are provided by Pro Football Focus Premium.
Quarterbacks
The heading might be plural, but I see no need to include backup QB Cooper Rush too much in this grading.
Rush played only a handful of snaps on the season, and they were in mop-up duty.
Dak Prescott
PFF Overall Grade (NFL Rank): 90.0 (3rd)
PFF Passing Grade (NFL Rank): 87.0 (3rd)
PFF Rushing Grade (NFL Rank): 78.6 (8th among qualified quarterbacks)
Dak Prescott was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL in the 2023 regular season.
His 2nd-team All-Pro nod is evidence that he took his game to a level he’d never reached before in his career.
What was the catalyst for this newly found command of the Cowboys’ offense?
The most likely culprit is HC Mike McCarthy.
McCarthy has been known as somewhat of a quarterback guru throughout his coaching career, and the departure of former play-caller Kellen Moore allowed McCarthy to unlock Prescott.
The Stats
Looking at the raw numbers posted on the home page of any statistical website is fun to do, but taking a deeper dive tells us more.
Prescott finished with 4,516 yards passing on 69.4% completions while throwing an NFL-leading 36 touchdown passes.
Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider that the offense didn’t find it’s groove until Week 6.
Prescott’s worst game of his career versus the 49ers in Week 5 was the jumpstart the offense needed to finish as the #1 scoring offense in all of football.
His 87.0 passing grade was third behind only Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Buffalo’s Josh Allen.
A quarterback in elite company has to right to be called elite, does he not?
What really set Dak (and the other two passers) ahead of the rest of the pack were the detailed stats that no one pays attention to until they’re pointed out.
Those stats are big time throws, turnover worthy plays, and adjusted completion percentage.
Big Time Throws
Big time throws are defined as passes with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further downfield or in a tighter window.
Prescott completed 41 big-time throws, second only to Josh Allen (42), and his big-time throw percentage (5.9%) is fifth among quarterbacks with 10 games played.
When I think of big time throws, I think of the seam routes that Prescott has gotten so well at.
Troy Aikman had the skinny post. Tony Romo had the back shoulder fade. Dak’s throw is the safety-splitting seam.
Turnover Worthy Plays
PFF defines turnover worthy plays as throws that have a high percentage chance to be intercepted.
Prescott ranks 13th among quarterbacks to play at least 10 games with 17 turnover worthy plays.
That rank might not seem like much of an accomplishment, but consider this.
Dak’s nearly leading the NFL in big time throw percentage into tight windows, yet only nine of those plays resulted in an interception is more than acceptable.
Adjusted Completion Percentage
Adjusted completion percentage basically takes the number of passes dropped by pass-catchers and counts them as completions because the quarterback was on target.
Adjusting the completion percentage for drops, Prescott’s true completion percentage jumps up to 77.0%.
That’s good enough for eighth in the NFL among quarterbacks playing in at least 10 games.
Grade: A
I give Dak Prescott an “A” grade for his 2023 season.
After a slow start, he commandeered his offense into the highest scoring offense in the NFL, and also first in many other categories.
In the wins, Prescott was masterful, and he beat the teams he was supposed to beat.
That’s the main goal of a starting quarterback in the NFL.
In the losses, his defense gave him no help, and he can’t be held completely at fault.
Most of Cowboys Nation doesn’t want to admit it, but Dak Prescott is still the best option at quarterback for this team moving forward.
He is NOT elite! What are his stats against the playoff teams? Lost to SF, lost to Philly, Lost to Detroit ( refs gave them the game ), lost to Buffalo, lost to Miami , lost to Green bay, beat a shell of a team in Philly!!!
Elite beat the best, not loose to them.
He is not a QB that Dallas should go forward with!!!!
Since you’re the first to comment, I’ll give you the honors. What is YOUR plan moving forward? If you want to get rid of Prescott, tell me how the Cowboys do that and remain competitive in 2024? I look forward to your response!
You bring up an excellent question. But to be fair, some of us predicted this scenario when JJ signed Dak to this contract. Now the response is, “That was the past, where do we go from here” is blatantly unfair. Dak’s contract offer should have resembled Geno Smith’s by being incentive-laden. Sooner, or later, Dallas will have to realize their their mistake. No one wants to analyze Tom Brady’s contracts with New England. His numbers barely entered in the top 10 QB salaries. Dak’s contract shows his greed, selfishness, and arrogance. You ask for a solution. I can’t provide one under the current way of thinking. The Cowboys will never go to a Super Bowl, much less win one, with Dak as the QB. He, Dallas, and JJ will continue to be source of many jokes and memes regarding futility.
Great post. There were a few of us who saw this coming. Sad thing is they will probably double down on this player in a really obtuse way.
Is it really greed tho you try leaving millions of dollars on the table especially where he came from. Lost alot of close family he probably providing for his entire family. Dallas didn’t have to sign him and if they didn’t someone else would’ve so it’s not like they had to feel bad for not doing it. You can never blame the players for taking the money they are worth because the market decides that not them. I love dq seems like a great coach but his scheme is our problem that and the o line under achieved. Our defensive scheme only works against weak teams a top tier offensive line could control us every time and that’s what you’re gonna face in the playoffs. With that set up you’re gonna win some games against tough teams you’re gonna lose some but you never gonna stop the opposing offense if they can run the ball for 4 yards every play. Maybe if we could run for 4 yards every play we could hang but we couldn’t. Either improve our o line so we can diversify our offense or bulk the defense up forget the talent get a couple players that are strong and physical. That needs to be our focus.
Fire the qb and head coach every year we don’t win the SB. See how that works!
This is rich, according to this article, he gets the credit when they win (BTW “masterful” against inferior teams) but the defense is at fault when they lose.
How do we really know he is the “best option” if the front office has NEVER given him any REAL COMPETITION??? Even the great Joe Montana was given real competition, in Steve Young. It is really a dereliction not to.
If some Fans are OK with regular season wins, fine. They will probably get that from DP who has the comfort of playing in a weak division almost every year. But most see the REAL repeated failure once the post season (and the tougher competition) kicks in.
What difference does any of that make? All that counts in the NFL is a Championship and a Super Bowl. Go ahead, publish Dak’s stats in playoff games. Some stats are misleading, and this is one. The REAL Dak appears in the post season (and in games against worthy opponents; SF, Buff, Miami, etc). All the things that must happen by next year were supposed to happen this year, and the year before. Sports writers are afraid of the fan base giving up on this team, as the Cowboys richly deserve, thus cratering their readership. But you can’t blow smoke forever at the fans who suffered.
Yes, a good one in the regular season… when there is a lot of easy opponents on the schedule. Versus teams playing at a top level, even in the regular season, NOT “elite”….
First half stats: Jordan Love – 185 passing yards, 1 TD and a 135.7 passer rating Dak Prescott – 87 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs and a 47.2 passer rating
He played against four teams that were playing at a playoff level when he played them.
Last game in playoffs v. Green Bay.
Detroit on Dec 30
Buffalo on 12-17
And SF on 10-8
I have excluded his Rams numbers because they weren’t playing like a playoff team at the time. They were 3 and 5. Ditto Philly. Already in their mysterious we-forgot-how-to-play-well slide. I have also only included his numbers v. GB from when the game was remotely on the line and his play mattered. The second half was just GB letting him chew up the clock to pad his passing stats.
So, in games in 2023 where he was playing a measuring stick opponent he did this
GB 47,3 qb rate per Pro Football Reference
Detroit – 103.5
Buffalo – 57.7
San Fran – 51.6
So, divide those four games and his average qb rating in games against good teams was… a 65 qb rate.
Go to Pro Football reference and look up season long ratings for the top 32 qbs and the WORST qb rating is 73.7.
So, yeah, let’s have some more Dak for 2024 who put up an average of 65 versus the kinds of teams we want him to beat in 2024 in 2023.
And, his great numbers came against what I said all along, creme puffs. Man he killed the hell out of those guys.
PS, 2024 looks like it is going to average out things and be much closer to a murderers’ row. Once again, reality says only happy to blind themselves from reality fans should want to build around Dak for 2024 (and as far as Jerry can see, per Jerry’s latest PR proclamation).