The past few weeks have seen some crazy swings to the NFC playoff picture.
A few weeks ago I wrote about the most likely playoff scenarios for the Dallas Cowboys.
The most likely scenario was second place in the NFC East and traveling to the NFC South champion as the fifth seed in the playoffs.
There were some outside chances for the NFC East title and the top seed in the conference.
The San Francisco 49ers have clinched the top seed in the NFC, but Dallas' NFC East title hopes are alive thanks to an epic December meltdown by the Philadelphia Eagles.
There are still three possible landing spots for HC Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys as the playoffs are now just a week away.
Let's take a look at those three seeding scenarios in order from most likely to least likely.
2nd Seed
ESPN Probability: 78%
This scenario seems unbelievable based on the likelihood of this scenario just two weeks ago.
After dropping a huge game in Buffalo to drop the Cowboys' record to 10-4, Dallas held just a 23% chance of ending the season as the #2 seed.
The path to the second seed in the conference largely hinged on Dallas taking care of business on their end (versus Detroit), but more so needed the Eagles to lose.
Philadelphia snatched the two-seed back from Dallas after the Cowboys' loss in Miami coupled with an Eagles win over the Giants.
The Eagles were in complete control of their own destiny, and even had a shot at the top seed should San Francisco falter.
Instead, Philadelphia crumbled at home versus Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, handing the two-seed and control of the NFC East back to the Cowboys.
Nobody could have imagined this scenario after a loss in Philadelphia dropped Dallas to 5-3 and the Eagles to 8-1.
The following is needed to secure the second seed:
-DAL win at WAS
-DAL loss at WAS & PHI loss at NYG & DET loss vs MIN
Dallas already disposed of the Commanders by the score of 45-10 earlier this season, and are poised to do it again.
Currently, Dallas would be hosting the Green Bay Packers at AT&T Stadium in the Wildcard game if everything stays as such.
Still in play for the seventh seed behind the Packers are the Rams, Saints, and Seahawks.
3rd Seed
ESPN Probability: <10%
This scenario is the next likely and mainly hinges on how the Lions finish the season.
Dallas and Detroit are tied in the standings at 11-5, but the Cowboys own the tiebreaker thanks to the head-to-head victory from Saturday evening.
Should the Cowboys and Eagles both lose their matchups this weekend, the Lions can jump in playoff seeding from three to two.
All they have to do is secure a victory at home over their division rival Minnesota Vikings.
The scenarios for Dallas to fall into the three seed are as follows:
-DAL loss at WAS & PHI loss at NYG & DET win vs MIN
The NFC's likeliest team for the sixth seed to face the third seed would be the Los Angeles Rams.
5th Seed
ESPN Probability: 19%
Falling to the fifth seed in the conference is the least likely scenario for the Dallas Cowboys.
Some fans on Twitter prefer the path to the Super Bowl that starts with the fifth seed traveling to either Tampa Bay or New Orleans in the Wildcard round.
That would set up another Divisional round matchup at San Francisco, and in the words of Randy Jackson, “It's gonna be a no from me, dawg.”
Give me the scenario where Dallas hosts two playoff games before the possibility of traveling to San Francisco for the NFC Championship Game.
For Dallas to fall to the fifth seed, they simply need the following:
-DAL loss at WAS & PHI win at NYG.
