When an NFL team hires a new head coach, there is inevitable optimism for the fanbase; even when the new guy is initially disliked, one fiery opening press conference or a few quotes is usually enough to turn at least some fans around.
In reality, though, that pessimism is sometimes warranted. After all, the league usually sees at least one head coach hiring per year that doesn’t make it to a second season.
In 2025, it was Pete Carroll on the Raiders; the year prior, it was both Jerod Mayo and Antonio Pierce; one year before that, Frank Reich didn’t even make it through the regular season with the Panthers before being canned.
You get the point: even with all the offseason optimism we see surrounding new HC’s, it is bound to blow up in one or more franchise’s faces.
With all but two vacancies filled, I want to stake my predictions on the top three new hires who could easily hit the job market again next January (or sooner).
Here, we’ll cover just that and why I feel they are at risk of a quick demise.
1. Todd Monken, Cleveland Browns Head Coach
Former Baltimore Ravens OC from 2023 to 2025.
Part of the criteria for this is usually an organization that has either fallen on hard times or consistency exists in them. The Cleveland Browns, of course, fit this description.
They hired now-former Ravens OC Todd Monken after a wonky head-coaching search that angered both the fanbase and incumbent DC Jim Schwartz.
At 59 years old with no prior NFL head coaching experience, a bad roster, and the lack of a big persona, Monken is a prime candidate to be let go after one season. If Cleveland struggles big time and finds themselves in the top three of the 2027 draft, would they not hit the big red reset button as a new QB comes in?
In short, Monken, who took on the least attractive opening of the cycle, has a lot on his plate in year one.
2. Jeff Hafley, Miami Dolphins Head Coach
Former Green Bay Packers DC from 2024-2025.
Another trend when it comes to one-and-done head coaches? Defensive-minded guys who come into a job with no quarterback stability. Pierce with the Raiders in 2024, Lovie Smith with Houston in 2022, and Steve Wilks in Arizona in 2018 are some recent examples.
Usually, a bad quarterback means a bad record, which means a good draft pick, which means the franchise doesn’t really care to keep their defensive-minded, losing-season head coach for their shiny new rookie QB.
Former Packers DC and Boston College HC, Jeff Hafley, falls right into this bucket as the new Miami Dolphins top dog.
Don’t get me wrong, the guy is very well respected around the league, but his lack of NFL head coaching experience, mediocre results in the role in college, and quarterback situation don’t bode well for his long-term success odds.
3. Whoever Is The Next Head Coach Of The Arizona Cardinals
Current Favorite: LA Rams OC Mike LaFleur.
Lastly, we have whoever the Arizona Cardinals can convince to take their job.
This opening, which came about with the firing of now-Packers DC Johnathan Gannon, quickly became one of the least attractive jobs in the cycle. They are resetting at QB, their roster is pretty old and wonky, and the ownership is not ideal.
Right now, the favorite to land it is Rams OC Mike LaFleur, who, with respect, wasn’t a serious candidate for another head coaching job outside of this one.
If he, or another guy, comes in and doesn’t perform well, Arizona could hit the nuclear button and blow it all up in favor of a much-needed rebuild.
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