The 2024 NFL Draft is just over a month away, and the Cowboys’ draft strategy is becoming the most important piece of the entire offseason.
With departures being the story of this free agency period for the Cowboys, and only one outside free agent joining the fold, it is starting to become clear that trading down in the draft might be a necessity for Dallas.
The Cowboys’ draft capital this year is a major weakness, much like their free-agency strategy.
After the Trey Lance, Brandin Cooks, and Eric Scott Jr trades, Dallas holds just three picks in the first 172 selections.
They will not draft for a fourth time until a compensatory pick in the late fifth round.
With the roster becoming depleted by free agency, a lack of picks is the last thing the Cowboys can absorb. This means they have a major decision to make.
Do they move down in the first round to acquire picks, instead of taking best-player-available at 24?
This is a move the Cowboys have to consider, even if it means moving into the early portion of the second round.
Let’s talk about why this could be a great move for Dallas.
Draft Class Depth
Dallas has really lucked out with the 2024 draft class.
It is incredibly deep at the biggest positions of need for the Cowboys, especially on the offensive line.
There is 11 guys on the offensive line who could realistically go in the first round of the draft; that would account for about 34% of the entire first round if they were all picked up before the 33rd pick.
That is an unprecedented amount of first-round offensive talent.
The most linemen ever picked in a first round was seven in the 1968 and 2013 drafts. We are all but certain to surpass that number in 2024.
In short, the Cowboys do not need to trade up or stick at the 24th pick to get a first-round talent on the offensive line.
They could move back into the late 20s, or even slide into the early second round, and still draft a first-round guy.
The Cowboys get significantly better if they add someone like Arizona OT, Jordan Morgan after a trade back, and then use their newfound draft capital on running back and linebacker.
Offensive line is Dallas’s biggest need, regardless of the idea of promoting from within.
If they can add a first-round talent to the line and collect picks at the same time, they have to strongly consider it.
The Soft Rebuild
As much as the front office loves to bizarrely claim they are “all in”, actions speak louder than words, and so far there are no actions to even compare to the Cowboys’ words.
They have quite literally ignored building the roster from free agency while simultaneously refusing to bring back key older veterans.
Dallas is pretty clearly angling toward a “soft rebuild.”
This would include letting older veterans walk, seeing what you can do with younger, cheaper talent, resigning or extending the key young guys, and building for the 2025 season from the draft class in 2024.
The Cowboys have all the tools to do this, except the building for the future with the 2024 draft, because of their lack of draft capital.
A trade back in this year’s class would net Dallas more young guys to develop for the future this season, and might even give them some extra capital in 2025, depending on how they work out the details of the trade.
Considering the core in place, this gives them a clear shot at a new Super Bowl window in the future.
That is why it is not a full rebuild; think of this as more of a retooling.
Dallas is hitting the refresh button, not the exit.
Addressing Wide Reciever
For some reason, we are looking at the possibility of the Cowboys drafting a wide receiver early as a luxury pick, but they desperately need a new receiver in this offense.
After releasing veteran Michael Gallup, Dallas is left with two proven pieces at wide receiver.
You can not expect the Cowboys offense to perform at the level it needs to in 2024 by relying solely on CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks, and hoping Jalen Tolbert or Jalen Brooks burst onto the scene.
Dallas needs to draft a receiver, and doing that in the early rounds is a lot easier when you have extra draft picks.
Offensive line, running back, and linebacker are still likely the biggest needs for the Cowboys, and with only three picks top-100 picks, they are backed into a corner to draft all three with those picks.
Adding to that stockpile gives them the chance to address other key needs, like wide receiver.
We have seen what it looks like when you bank on the offense succeeding without a complete wide receiver room; think of the 2019 season before Dallas traded for Amari Cooper.
It could get ugly for the Cowboys’ offense if they don’t supply the offensive with adequate weapons around Lamb, Cooks, and Jake Ferguson.
They can easily fix this problem with a trade down the board.
Dallas trading back means more help for the present and the future.
Sticking with the limited draft capital they have would be a huge mistake.