One game can change a lot in the NFL. At least, it can change perception.
The Dallas Cowboys hadn’t won a game in over a month since losing their starting quarterback, sliding down to last place in the NFC East standings. It was fair to question if they would win another game at all, as they seemingly got dominated back to back weeks under Andy Dalton before moving onto younger and (even worse) quarterbacks.
Things in Dallas have changed, however, and it only took one win. By defeating the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday, and doing so in a competent well-played way, the Cowboys now look primed to make a run at the division. After all, they only need to win Thursday against Washington to re-claim first place in the win column.
But now that they’ve put together a couple games in a row of quality football, they enter unfamiliar territory on Thanksgiving. They are the favorites.
Vegas has the Cowboys as 3 point home favorites over Washington, which typically means this would be a pick ’em on a neutral field. Regardless, public perception has certainly shifted in the Cowboys favor, with most national pundits looking to them and the Giants as the new favorites to clinch the mandatory NFC East playoff birth.
Let’s be clear about something: the Cowboys have been awful when favored as of late. Per Covers, the Cowboys are 22-46 against the spread their last 68 games as a home favorite. They’re also 1-4 against the spread their last five divisional games, and 0-6 against the spread after scoring 30 points the week before.
So, the trends don’t exactly point to a well played Cowboys performance on Thursday.
If it’s any consolation, Washington hasn’t been much better either. While the Football Team is 5-2 against the spread following their last 7 straight up victories, they’re also 1-4 against the spread their last 5 games as a road underdog and 4-10 against the spread their last 14 against the NFC East.
Something’s gotta give!
Somehow the stoppable force and the moveable object square off on Thanksgiving, with the NFC East lead essentially on the line.
