The Dallas Cowboys have a valuable asset this offseason with the 10th-overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. According to team executive Stephen Jones they’re already getting some offers from teams looking to move up. What could the Cowboys potentially get in exchange for trading down?
For this discussion we’ll use the classic model for draft pick valuation, credited to former Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson. Some teams have adapted this and created their own math but this is still viewed as the standard for most of the NFL.
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The 10th pick is worth 1,300 points according to the standard chart. Here’s what the next ten picks are worth:
- 11th – 1,250
- 12th – 1,200
- 13th – 1,150
- 14th – 1,100
- 15th – 1,050
- 16th – 1,000
- 17th – 950
- 18th – 900
- 19th – 875
- 20th – 850
So for example, the Arizona Cardinals currently hold the 16th pick. They would need to give the Cowboys that pick (worth 1,000 points) and make up a difference of about 300 points for Dallas to agree to that deal.
A 300-point draft pick falls somewhere toward the end of the 2nd Round. Arizona’s 2nd-round pick is worth 410 points, so they might offer than but then ask Dallas for their 3rd-round compensatory pick to even things out.
Cowboys 10th and 99th picks = 1,404 pts
Cardinals 16th and 49th picks = 1,410 pts
That’s just an example of how this works. The math isn’t always even; sometimes one team offers more or accepts less than equal value depending on their goal. But if you look back through past trades you will see how these values tend to be roughly balanced.
Clearly, the Cowboys are in position to ask for some considerable incentive to move from their current pick. Upgrading a late 3rd-rounder into a mid-2nd-round pick is no small return, and the profit could get even better depending on how far Dallas is willing to trade down.
Talk should only heat up as we get closer to next Thursday night. It’s unlikely that the Cowboys will make any move before draft night and perhaps not even until they’re actually on the clock. Dallas will probably wait to make sure one of the elite talents doesn’t fall to them at #10 before agreeing to any trade.
However it shakes out, the Dallas Cowboys are in a great position for this 2021 NFL Draft.
