The Dallas Cowboys got themselves back on track in Week 2 after a season-opening disaster against the New York Giants; they needed that W against Washington, but this coming week is, by far, their biggest test yet.
At 1-1, the Cowboys are heading to Brazil for a matchup against 2x NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, who are hungry after a shocking loss against the Saints last week.
Dallas’s Week 2 matchup was a “must-win” if you look at the history of 0–2 teams making the playoffs, but the history shows a massive difference between 2-1 and falling to 1-2 as well. I’ll get into the stats specifically, but they are pretty jarring.
For the Cowboys, however, that record difference has been even more notable; let’s get into what it looks like.
NFL + Cowboys History Shows How Important a 2-1 Start Can Be
Since 2016, just 26.4% of NFL teams that started 1-2 reached the playoffs, while 61.8% of 2–1 squads did.
I told you the numbers were pretty staggering, and there they are; there is a 35.4 percentage point difference based on the result of just one game in Week 3. As I mentioned, however, on the Cowboys front, the numbers get even worse.
Dallas has started 2-1 five times over the last ten completed seasons (2016, 2017, 2021, 2022, and 2023), and four of those five teams went on to make the playoffs; that’s good for an 80% postseason rate. The lone exception was the 2017 Cowboys, who finished 9-7 and missed the postseason.
On the flip side, the Cowboys have made the playoffs just once in four 1–2 starts since 2016. Those seasons came in 2018, 2020, 2024, and 2025, with the 2018 Cowboys serving as the only team to recover and reach the postseason.
That team needed quite the turnaround, too, as Dallas fell to 3-5 before acquiring Amari Cooper. They then won seven of their final eight games to finish 10-6 and win the NFC East.
In other words, recovering from 1-2 is certainly possible, but recent Cowboys’ history says it is both rare, and the result of some aggressive in-season moves to upgrade the roster. Of course, Jerry Jones has alluded to that as a possibility, but the hope is the team won’t need that kind of major upgrading.
In short, Sunday’s matchup with Baltimore is much more significant than your average September game.
A win would put Dallas into a position that has resulted in a playoff appearance four out of five times over the last decade, while a loss would put them into one that has produced a postseason berth just once in four tries.
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