The Dallas Cowboys suffered an uncharacteristic loss to open the 2026 season — it was the first time a healthy Dak Prescott lost to the New York Giants since December 2016, in his rookie year. Now, heading into Week 2, the team is trying to avoid a record they haven’t had in nearly two decades.
If the Cowboys were to lose at home against the Washington Commanders this Sunday, it would be the first time the team started 0-2 since 2010; that year led to a 1-7 start, the firing of Wade Phillips, and a 6-10 record overall.
The team has started 0-1 on numerous occasions in the last fifteen years (seven times to be exact), and they still made the playoffs in five of those seasons.
Does this make Week 2’s matchup with Washington a “must-win” this early into the 2026 regular season? Let’s talk about it.
The Numbers Say 0-2 Is A League-Wide Death Sentence
Since 2000, 88% of NFL teams that started 0-2 have missed the postseason (25/194).
Dallas overcame this record once in their franchise’s history, and it was in 1993, when they ultimately won the Super Bowl; outside of that, they are 0/6 in making the playoffs after starting 0-2.
America’s Team is not alone in this struggle — as the above stat says, if you drop your first two games, there is almost a 90% chance your season is as good as done for.
Plus, these are not two ordinary losses; should the Cowboys lose against the underdog Commanders on Sunday, it would be two NFC East games. The only time they had lost two division games to start a year was 2000 (back when Arizona was still in the NFCE), and they ended that campaign 5-11.
It’s not just the historical numbers and precedent, however, as another figure stands firmly in Dallas’s way if they allowed this bad start to snowball.
Cowboys Strength of Schedule Jumps into Top-10 After First Two Weeks
Dallas’s opponents in Weeks 3–18 held a .524 win percentage in 2025; including the first two weeks, that drops to .493.
In 2025, the Giants finished the year 4-13, while the Commanders finished 5-12. Moving forward, Dallas’s matchups against those kinds of teams come few and far between.
They’ll face, in a row, from Weeks 3–7, the Ravens, Texans, Buccaneers, Packers, and Eagles (that ain’t easy), before later in the year having a stretch against Philly, the Seahawks, the “superteam” Rams, and the Jaguars.
Their season will end how it started, facing Washington in Week 17 and New York in Week 18.
In short, yes, this week is a season-altering must-win situation; the stats league-wide on 0–2 starts are not on their side, and their schedule going forward doesn’t offer much hope either. If the Dallas Cowboys want a return to the postseason, they better win this Sunday.
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