The 2025 NFL MVP race looks predictable on paper. Lamar Jackson leads the odds at +550, Josh Allen sits close behind at +600, and Joe Burrow (+750) and Patrick Mahomes (+800) round out the favorites.
But here’s the thing – football loves an underdog story, and several players flying under the radar could crash this party.
Yes, quarterbacks have won the last 12 MVP awards. But remember Saquon Barkley? He finished third in 2024 voting after rushing for 2,005 yards.
That proves voters will look beyond quarterbacks when someone puts up crazy numbers. So let’s dig into five sleepers who could steal the MVP trophy.
Jordan Love Is Ready to Explode
Jordan Love enters his third year as Green Bay’s starter, and everything’s finally clicking. He threw for 3,389 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2024 with a 96.7 passer rating – some solid numbers that don’t tell the whole story.
For five games last season, Love looked unstoppable. He posted a 119.9 passer rating during that stretch, showing us what he can really do. Early knee injuries held him back, but once healthy, he lit it up.
Now he’s getting help.
The Packers drafted receiver Matthew Golden in the first round, which should fix their drop problem – only Daniel Jones had more passes dropped than Love last year.
With just two seasons under his belt, Love has tons of room to grow.
Betting Markets Show Value on Long Shots
Sports betting, especially crypto betting, doesn’t believe in these dark horses yet.
Crypto sports betting has blown up recently, with expert Alexandre Reed testing hundreds of crypto betting sites and bitcoin gambling sites (source: https://99bitcoins.com/best-bitcoin-casino/best-crypto-sports-betting/).
Such decentralized betting sites usually give you much better odds on long shots such as Love, meaning huge payouts if you bet early and they deliver.
Love thrives on deep balls – he had a 105.7 rating on deep throws in 2024. Green Bay’s offense plays to his strengths. If he maintains his late-2023 form for a full season, MVP voters will notice.
Bo Nix Could Take a Huge Leap
Denver’s Bo Nix turned heads as a rookie, and year two could be special. He finished 2024 on fire – a 126.0 passer rating over his last three games with nine touchdowns and one interception.
Nix completed more than 66% of his passes for 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions while leading Denver to their first playoffs since 2015.
But what about its last eight games? Even better: 70.3% completion rate, 21 touchdowns, six picks.
Now he gets a full offseason in Sean Payton’s system with better receivers. Nix spent the offseason studying film and working with defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to read defenses better.
Second-year quarterbacks mostly make huge jumps, and Nix looks ready.
Kyler Murray Wants His Respect
Kyler Murray might be the most interesting MVP long shot in 2025.
His 36-45-1 record as a starter isn’t pretty, and he needs to prove that the massive contract was worth it. But Arizona keeps adding talent around him.
Murray can run and throw like Lamar Jackson during his MVP years. Early 2024 projections showed MVP-level potential if he stayed healthy.
His teammates say he’s more focused and motivated than ever.
Tight end Trey McBride believes Murray can win MVP, pointing to better leadership and improved health heading into 2025. At 27, Murray still has time to reach his potential. Voters love a comeback story.
Don’t Count Out Running Backs
While Love, Nix and Murray give us quarterback options, another running back could make history. Barkley proved in 2024 that voters will consider backs who put up monster numbers.
Since 2000, only four running backs have won the MVP. They all needed at least 2,000 total yards and playoff teams.
Several backs could hit those marks in 2025 if their offensive lines step up.
Barkley’s 2,005 rushing yards showed that 2,000-yard seasons still happen. Watch for backs in good situations to emerge if their teams win big.
What Needs to Happen
These dark horses need things to break right.
MVP winners usually need more than 11 wins. Love needs Green Bay to win the NFC North. Nix has to keep Denver in the division race. Murray must get Arizona to the playoffs.
But remember – MVP voting loves a good story. A young quarterback leading a surprise playoff run, a veteran proving doubters wrong, or another historic rushing season could win over voters.
The 2025 MVP race might look settled, but football always surprises us. These five players have the talent and a chance to shock everyone and make history.
