The Dallas Cowboys very nearly did it. They almost ran the gauntlet that many pundits predicted would end their season.
After consecutive three-point wins over the Eagles and the Chiefs last week, Dallas had a chance to run the gauntlet with a perfect 3-0 record.
That would have put them at 7-5-1 for the season with a very favorable schedule ahead. The Cowboys could afford a loss in Los Angeles to the Chargers with a win over Detroit.
With their other three remaining games being against the Vikings, Commanders, and Giants, even a 10-6-1 mark would get them in as a wildcard team at the least.
But now back at 6-6-1 after the 44-30 loss to Detroit, the Cowboys are 10th in the NFC and 2.5 games behind the 49ers, who currently sit in the seventh playoff spot.
It seems unlikely Dallas can catch the 49ers. That would be assuming that both the Lions and Panthers fold up down the stretch too.
That is an unlikely scenario.
Which leaves only path to the playoffs open enough for the Cowboys to still have a chance.
Win The NFC East
Dallas is actually closer to the Eagles for first in the division. At 8-4, Philadelphia is just two games up on Dallas.
While the Cowboys have just four games left, the Eagles still have five to play.
Philadelphia faces the 8-4 Chargers, who trail Denver by two games in the AFC West.
Los Angeles is currently fifth in the AFC with the same record as the Colts (6th), and the Bills (7th). All three have the Texans (7-5) and Kansas City (6-6) breathing down their necks.
The Eagles and the Cowboys will not have an easy time dispatching the Chargers.
Nor does it get any easier for Philadelphia after this Sunday.
The Eagles’ final four games will be against the Raiders, the Commanders, the Bills, and the Commanders at home. They could go 2-3 down the stretch and be sitting at 10-7.
If Dallas runs the table and the Eagles win just two out of five games, the Cowboys win the NFC East by a half-game at 10-6-1.
The Long-Shot Wildcard
Passing the Panthers should be easy. Carolina has the Saints and two games sandwiched around a home game versus Seattle left on their schedule.
The Panthers could end up 8-9, with 9-8 being a best-case scenario.
Detroit’s schedule is also fraught with peril, with games against the Rams, Steelers, Vikings, and the NFC’s current top seed, the Bears.
Detroit could easily end up 2-2 over this stretch and finish at 10-7.
If Dallas can run the table and get help from Carolina and the Lions, they move up to the 8th spot. But that’s still one spot short and they need further help.
In 7th, the 49ers have the Titans, Colts, Bears, and Seahawks remaining.
If San Francisco wins any two of those, Dallas cannot catch them.
Green Bay might be the best chance the Cowboys have for a wildcard. At 8-3-1, the Packers could end up in a tie with Dallas at the end of the year.
They play twice against the Bears with a game in Denver in between.
Their last two games are against the Ravens and Vikings.
If sixth-seeded Green Bay only wins twice, Dallas could tie them at 10-6-1 and then it comes down to tie-breakers. And it’s too early to figure out who that benefits.
The Bears are 9-3 and would need two wins out of games against the Packers (twice), the Browns, the 49ers, and the Lions, to keep Dallas away.
Seattle, also at 9-3, is fifth by virtue of a tie-breaker with the NFC West-leading Rams.
Two wins by the Seahawks out of these five games: Falcons, Colts, Rams, Panthers, and 49ers, and Dallas cannot catch them. Los Angeles has two against Arizona, the Lions, Seattle, and Atlanta remaining.
Two Rams wins and another path for Dallas to a wildcard berth is slammed shut.
The Cowboys’ Best Hope
For Dallas, the better odds are to hope the Eagles collapse down the stretch just as they did in 2023, and allow the Cowboys to steal the division and probably the No. 3 seed.
In 2023, the Eagles were 10-1 and looked unstoppable. The Cowboys were two games back that year as well, at 8-3.
Philadelphia would lose five of their last six regular season games to finish 11-6 while Dallas went 4-2 for a 12-5 finish and the NFC East title.
Both teams got blown out in the wildcard round that year.
The Eagles started 8-2 this year but have lost their last two games. The Cowboys started 3-5-1, but winning three of their last four have pulled them back to within shouting distance of the division lead.
The Cowboys will be hoping that recent history repeats itself.
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Prescott interceptions, a soft secondary again, and no pressure from the defense, save for James Houston’s one sack, killed the Cowboys.
Dallas’ defense benefitted from the Raiders and Eagles abandoning the run. Even the Chiefs did it to a lesser extent. The Lions kept pound the rock and the Cowboys’ run defense got exposed last night.
Look for their last four opponents to be taking notes and not being so quick to quit running the ball.