The Dallas Cowboys went into Buffalo and laid an egg of Texas-size proportions.
The 31-10 loss in Orchard Park, NY is a demoralizing one that has left Cowboys Nation with more questions than answers.
Why is there such a large disparity between how the team plays at home versus on the road?
Is the loss of Johnathan Hankins the only reason the defense gave up 266 yards rushing to James Cook, Ty Johnson, and Josh Allen?
Was bad weather conditions the sole reason for the offense’s ineptitude?
So many questions need answers, but those questions can wait for another day.
The Dallas Cowboys clinched a playoff spot before kickoff on Sunday afternoon thanks to losses by Green Bay and Atlanta along with a victory by Detroit.
Postseason play is guaranteed for the Cowboys for the third year in a row.
This marks the third straight season with a playoff berth, the franchise’s first occurrence since a six-season stretch from 1991-1996.
All possibilities are still on the table with three games left to go in the regular season, but today we will analyze Dallas’s top three most likely outcomes.
Each scenario will detail Dallas’ path along with any help needed from other teams to achieve that result.
Current probability projections provided by ESPN.
NFC East Crown
Current Probability: 30%
First, let’s talk about the possibility of winning the division before diving into the seeding chances.
No team has repeated as NFC East champions since the Eagles’ run in the early 2000s.
The NFC East crown is still very much alive for both the Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles.
They are tied with a 10-4 record, of which the Cowboys currently hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles.
This is where it gets confusing.
If both teams win the rest of their games and finish the season with identical 13-4 records, the Eagles would hold the tiebreaker after five layers of tiebreaker scenarios.
Tiebreaker
The easiest path for the Cowboys is to finish with a better record than the Eagles, but let’s pretend that both teams will finish the season on three-game win streaks.
1. Head to Head
This is a tie based on the fact the teams split the season series with home victories.
Philadelphia won the Week 9 matchup 28-23 while the Cowboys won in Week 14 with a 33-13 victory.
2. Division Record
Both teams would be tied with 5-1 division records, with each team’s one loss being to each other.
There is a scenario where Dallas wins this tiebreaker if each team loses one more game.
Philadelphia plays two of their last three games versus the New York Giants led by Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito.
They would have to lose one of those games, and Dallas’ one additional loss cannot be Week 18 at the Washington Commanders.
3. Common Opponents
Each team winning their final three games would mean they would finish with identical 9-3 records vs common opponents.
Both teams lost to San Francisco, and Dallas lost to Arizona and Buffalo while Philadelphia lost to the Jets and Seahawks.
4. Conference Record
Again, each team winning their final three games would mean they would finish with identical 9-3 records against NFC opponents.
5. Strength of Victory
Here is where the tiebreaker finally leans in Philadelphia’s favor.
Currently, the Eagles’ opponents have a combined record of 82-103 (.443).
The Cowboys’ opponents come in with a combined record of 77-108 (.416).
Somewhere in that equation are five games that the Cowboys need help from other teams to overcome.
Essentially, Dallas would need all opponents they’ve beaten this season to win as many games as possible in these last three weeks.
On the other side of the coin, they need the teams whom Philadelphia has beaten to lose as many games as possible.
To try to make it as simple as possible, Cowboys fans need to root for the Seahawks, Chargers, Panthers, Jets, and Lions (not against us, obviously).
Cowboys fans also need to root against the Bills, Chiefs, Cardinals, Vikings, and Buccaneers.
5th Seed
Current Probability: 70%
Ending the regular season as the 5th seed in the playoff picture for the second year in a row is the most likely scenario for the Cowboys.
ESPN gives the Cowboys a 70% chance to enter the playoffs as the 5th seed, in which they will visit the NFC South champion in the Wildcard round.
Right now that team looks like it’s going to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the second year in a row.
The New Orleans Saints are in the running, but ESPN gives them just a 32% chance to win the division.
Unless the 6th or 7th seeds pull an upset, a Cowboys’ win in the Wildcard round will likely mean yet another Divisional round matchup at San Francisco, who has an 88% chance at the #1 seed in the NFC.
2nd Seed
Current Probability: 23%
The next likeliest scenario for the Cowboys is the 2nd seed in the NFC.
This would require them to win the NFC East, first of all.
Second, if they lose to Detroit and finish with the same record as them, the Lions would hold the tiebreaker.
Again, the easiest path for Dallas to secure the 2nd seed is to win the rest of their games.
As a 2nd seed, Dallas will host a Wildcard playoff game against one of three teams fighting for playoff contention.
The Rams are leading that race, followed up by the Seahawks and the Vikings.
Dallas has already defeated Los Angeles and Seattle this season, but a victory in a rematch is anything but guaranteed.
There is also a possibility to finish as the 3rd seed, but it would require Philadelphia’s meltdown to continue, and Detroit to finish with a better record than Dallas.
1st Seed
Current Probability: Less than 10%
This scenario is now so unlikely that ESPN doesn’t list anyone except San Francisco on their chart for probable outcomes.
The only way Dallas can still secure the #1 seed is to win the rest of their games, win the tiebreaker over Philadelphia, and hope that San Francisco loses two of their final three games.
A tie with San Francisco at the end of the regular season does nothing for Dallas because of the head-to-head loss in Week 5.
The 49ers end their regular season with a home game versus Baltimore followed by a trip to Washington before returning home for a big divisional game versus the Rams.
All hope is not lost here, although I wouldn’t hold my breath.
The Ravens look like the best team in the AFC and are certainly capable of taking down the 49ers.
Los Angeles poses the next biggest threat to San Francisco.
Division games are always tough, but QB Matthew Stafford has never beaten San Francisco (0-5) as a member of the Rams.
Summary
To wrap this up, it’s okay to be optimistic, but temper your expectations for any scenario that doesn’t feature the Cowboys as the 5th seed entering the playoffs.
Philadelphia is falling apart after three straight losses, but they have a favorable schedule to end the season while the Cowboys play two playoff teams.
Even if Dallas does their part by rattling off three straight wins, the tiebreakers needed to overcome the Eagles and 49ers are too substantial to stress over.
The most likely scenario is the 5th seed in the conference and a date on the road against the NFC South winner for the second consecutive year.
Any scenario beyond that remains to be seen.