We made it.
After a long offseason the NFL regular season finally kicks off again this weekend, with the Dallas Cowboys opening up as home favorites against their division rival, the New York Giants. Dallas swept the Giants a year ago, but after busy offseasons for both teams, 2019 should provide some intriguing matchups between the two NFC East foes.
Let’s take a look at the line and total to see where you should place your bets this Sunday.
The Line
Dallas Cowboys -7 (O/U 45.5 points).
Dallas Cowboys
It’s been quite the offseason for America’s Team. Now that Ezekiel Elliott has signed his contract extension, officially ending #ZekeWatch, this Cowboys offense is at full strength heading into the season opener. Amari Cooper is back and healthy, Michael Gallup is coming off an impressive preseason, the offseason line is fully intact, and even Jason Witten has come out of retirement to make a run at NFL supremacy.
On the defensive side of the ball the Cowboys return a very talented bunch led by Leighton Vander Esch, newly extended Jaylon Smith, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Byron Jones. This core (for the most part) is expected to be together for a long time, and 2019 is the year their window to compete is as open as ever.
The goal this season is simple for Dallas: take the next step and win the Super Bowl. They’ve been pegged as NFC contenders by most analysts and fans, and they will need to take their first step towards that goal this Sunday.
New York Giants
The Giants had another rough season in 2018, landing them with a top 10 draft pick last April. With this pick they selected Duke quarterback Daniel Jones, looking to find Super Bowl winning veteran Eli Manning’s longterm replacement at the game’s most important position.
Despite investing this top pick in Jones, though, the Giants will start Manning this Sunday against the Cowboys, giving him one last season to right the ship. He will go into the season opener with a bit of a different cast of weapons, however, as New York also traded Pro Bowl wide out Odell Beckham to the Cleveland Browns during the offseason.
The Giants are going to lean heavily on second year running back Saquon Barkley to carry their offensive load, and will hope to see a somewhat new-looked young defense make strides to keep this game close.
Trends
- The Cowboys are 5-0 outright their last 5 games at home.
- Dallas is 5-1 outright their last 6 home games against the Giants.
- The score total has gone under in 5 the last 6 Cowboys/Giants games.
- The Giants are 7-0 against the spread their last 7 road games.
- But, the Giants are 1-4 against the spread their last 5 games against the Cowboys. Specifically 0-4 their last 4 games.
The Pick
I really like the score total to hit the under in this game. I can see the Cowboys offense starting out a bit slow as Ezekiel Elliott gets adjusted early on, but think they will take over as the game moves along.
The reason I love the under, though, is because I can’t see the Giants scoring many points against this Cowboys defense. Especially not with Eli Manning at the helm.
Give me the under here and a Cowboys victory, 27-13.
