This Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys are hosting the San Francisco 49ers at AT&T Stadium. It will be their first meeting in the playoffs since 1995, in which San Francisco won 38-28.
If you listen to the national media this week, everyone is doubting the Cowboys and giving the edge to the 49ers. All you hear about is how Deebo Samuel, Geroge Kittle, and the 49ers running game will be too much for Dallas.
It’s almost as if Dallas is being dismissed. It must be frustrating as a Cowboys fan, but it would make a victory that much sweeter.
With all that said, the 49ers do pose some problems.
They are a very physical team with a very good offensive line and have a stud left tackle in Trent Williams, who, despite missing the season finale with an elbow injury, said he’s prepared to play this Sunday. Randy Gregory will have his work cut out for him this week.
The 49ers are also great at producing yards after the catch. They rank eighth in the NFL in yards after the catch, and Deebo Samuel finished the season with the second-most yards after catch. The 49ers offense finished the season number one in yards per play (6.1)
The Cowboys struggle with containing YAC and are liable to give up big plays. It will be a tough test for the Dallas cornerbacks and linebackers
The key to the game will be stopping the 49ers’ run-first offense. They ran the ball the fifth most of any team this season, just under 30 totes per game. Per rbsdm.com, the 49ers have the ninth-best offense in terms of rush EPA and ninth-best in terms of rush success rate.
Last week the 49ers scored a touchdown on a drive in which they ran the ball ten times and passed once, and that pass was by Samuel, not Jimmy Garoppolo.
The Cowboys need to force Garoppolo to beat them and be responsible for moving the ball on them. They can’t give up easy yards on the ground.
If Garoppolo is forced to win the game for San Francisco, look for a few turnovers from the Dallas defense.
Third-down will be crucial as well. The 49ers convert 40.2% of their third downs (14th) but have shined the last three weeks, converting 48.57%. The Dallas defense excels on third-down ranking second in the league in third-down efficiency (34.08%). It will be critical for the Cowboys to continue their success on this front.
On offense, it is simple for Dallas, Dak Prescott needs to come to play, and he needs to shine. The 49ers pass defense is middle of the pack in dropback success rate (13th) and towards the league’s bottom in dropback EPA (23rd).
Of course, it would be nice to see Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard impact this game. However, the 49ers’ rush defense is excellent. They rank second in rush EPA (-0.151) and rush success rate (34.2%).
The Cowboys need to start fast and hot and get out to an early lead to pressure the 49ers. Keeping them in the game with costly penalties and botched redzone drives will allow them to stick with their run-first game plan, and Dallas ranks 23rd in yards per attempt on the defensive side of the ball.
The pressure will be on this Sunday, and Prescott needs to show out. Will he prove the haters wrong? Only time will tell.
