To CeeDee, or not to CeeDee, that is the question – in Dallas.
And the rub – if we’re going to keep this cheesy Shakespearean theme going – is that there is no easy answer to that question.
Yes, CeeDee Lamb has proven he deserves to get paid. His numbers have improved every year that he’s played in the NFL.
Here’s his numbers over his first four seasons:
- YEAR – REC. – YARDS — TDs
- 2020 – 74 – 935 – 5
- 2021 – 79 –1,102 – 6
- 2022 – 107 –1,359 – 9
- 2023 – 135 – 1,749 – 12
Hard to argue against that stat line, isn’t it?
But where the problem arises is not in deciding if he should get a big contract extension. Instead, the issue is how do you pay him, Dak Prescott, and Micah Parsons too?
And, while doing that, still find enough salary cap room to pay the other 50 guys on the roster in 2025 and beyond?
Top-Heavy Roster
Word has it that Lamb is asking for at least $32 million. He’s set to make just under $18 million in the final year of his rookie contract in 2024.
Prescott is asking for $60 million. Parsons is probably looking to land about $30-35 million a year on his next contract.
That’s nearly $130 million per year for three players.
The projected NFL Salary Cap for 2025 is somewhere between $260-270 million. So about half of the Cowboys’ cap will go to these three – if Dallas pays them all what they’re asking.
It would make them the highest paid trio of teammates in the NFL.
That leaves an average of $2.6 million per player for the other 50 guys. And that would include Michael Gallup’s dead money hit of $8.7 million for 2025 too.
A Hobson’s Choice
It seems more likely that one of the three is not getting the big payday, at least not while wearing a Cowboys’ uniform beyond 2024.
And don’t discount the possibility that two might not. There’s even a scenario where none of them gets extended by Dallas.
Figuring out who the odd man – or tow — out will be is a losing endeavor. But this is a corner Jerry Jones can only blame himself for being in.
As my colleague Shane Taylor has pointed out, Dallas might have avoided this mess – or at least mitigated it – by getting these deals done earlier.
Instead, they let Trevor Lawrence, Justin Jefferson, and Joey Bosa reset the markets first. Dallas might have saved themselves about $20-30 million a year that way.
Then again, as our boss here, Bryson Treece, pointed out earlier this week there’s no guarantee that the players wouldn’t have held out after the other players reset the market as they did.
Neither owners nor players have sterling reputations when it comes to honoring contracts.
And The Decision Is…
The combinations are as follows:
- Sign Prescott and Lamb, let Parsons walk.
- Sign Prescott and Parsons, let Lamb walk.
- Sign Lamb and Parsons, let Prescott walk.
- Sign all three and hope every draft pick and bargain basement free agent signing pays off in a big way.
- Let all three walk.
If you’ve followed my work here you probably already know which option I’d pick. But I’m still going to explain why.
First, you are correct. I would let all three walk and rebuild the entire roster.
My second choice would be to would allow Prescott to go find his $60 million contract somewhere else.
He’s a great regular season quarterback.
He disappears in the playoffs. You don’t pay $60 million to a player that doesn’t rise up when the pressure is on.
And you certainly don’t hand over $14 million more than the quarterback with two years less experience but has already won three Super Bowls.
And before you tell me the quarterback doesn’t solely win or lose games, tell me that Kansas City still wins those championships without Mahomes at quarterback.
Yeah, I didn’t think you could.
Frankly, Lawrence’s contract is criminal. Compounding the sin by handing Prescott $60 million with his 2-5 playoff record would be the crime of the century.
The Cowboys would be better suited in the long-term to pay Lamb and Parsons.
Then they have to hope that either their trade for Trey Lance pays off, or they can find their next quarterback in the 2025 draft.
Which of the above options will Dallas eventually choose? Who knows.
Frankly, I’m glad I’m not the one who has to make it.
Because deep down, I don’t think any of them are the right choice – aside from sending all three packing.
Maybe Jerry Jones does too. And that may be why these deals didn’t get done earlier after all.
Lamb Goals For 2024
Whether Lamb plays in Dallas or not in 2024 and beyond he enters the year with a big goal in mind.
His 2023 season of 1,749 was the ninth-best single-season mark all-time for NFL receivers.
Detroit’s Calvin Johnson set the record in 2012 with 1,964 yards. Lamb will be aiming to be the first to break 2,000 yards.
In the right circumstance, he could do it.
Assuming he plays in all 17 games, he needs to average 117.65 yards a game to hit 2,000 yards.
Of course, he would have the advantage of an extra game over Johnson – who played under a 16-game schedule.
If Lamb were to average 125 yards a game through Week 16, he would hit 2,000 yards. And he would set the 16 game mark with 35 yards to spare.
For his career, with 5,145 yards in just four seasons, Lamb is still 474 yards shy of cracking the Top 250 in all-time receiving yards in the NFL.
Jerry Rice is the all-time leader with 22,895 yards. It took him 20 seasons to get there.