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Dallas will stumble before the playoffs, but regain their footing when it matters most

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Regular season NFL football has finally arrived, and all of the anticipation for a Cowboys fan base building up since the playoff loss in San Francisco has come to a head.

Today, I complete my season prediction by going game by game to determine how the Cowboys season will play out.

Some may call it conjecture, but I believe all of the signs of a successful season are there if one is willing to look past previous failures.

My prediction for the first half of the season has the Cowboys starting 7-2, and if you missed it, click here to read all about it.

Cowboys will win early and often to set themselves up for a tough second half of the season
Dallas Cowboys 2023 regular season schedule.

The first half of the season ended with the Cowboys securing a home win, and completion of the sweep of the rival Giants.

Their focus then turns to a rookie quarterback on the road.

Cowboys' non-divisional schedule has tantalizing matchups
Panthers’ rookie QB Bryce Young

Week 11: at Carolina Panthers

Prediction: W, 34-6
Record: 8-2

Facing the Cowboys defense later in the season when he’s had nine games of starting experience is a favor to Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young, but it won’t help.

Dan Quinn and the Cowboys defense stifle Young and the Panthers offense, forcing multiple turnovers, and allowing just two field goals.

Could we possibly see QB Trey Lance in mop-up duty by this point in the season?

The starters could use some extra rest with the short Thanksgiving week looming ahead.

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Commanders WR Terry McLaurin

Week 12: vs Washington Commanders (Thanksgiving)

Prediction: W, 26-16
Record: 9-2

Ron Rivera and the Washington Commanders better eat their Thanksgiving turkey before the game because they won’t be able to enjoy it afterwards.

Only time will tell if Sam Howell is still the starting quarterback this late in November, but no matter who is under center, they won’t have an answer for the Cowboys defense.

“Scary” Terry McLaurin will once again be deleted by CB Trevon Diggs, and the defensive line will have Howell running for his life.

Cowboys fall to 0-2 in preseason play after loss to Seahawks 1
Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith looks to pass versus the Dallas Cowboys in a preseason game on August 19, 2023.

Week 13: vs Seattle Seahawks

Prediction: L, 28-20
Record: 9-3

Instead of having 10 days rest after Thanksgiving, the NFL schedule makers have the Cowboys playing the very next Thursday night.

An up and coming Seahawks team gets the better of the Cowboys as the fatigue of three games in 11 days catches up with them.

The offense will lack juice, and the defense will be a step slower than the plethora of weapons on the Seattle offense.

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Eagles WR AJ Brown

Week 14: vs Philadelphia Eagles

Prediction: W, 44-34
Record: 10-3

After the first matchup in Philadelphia resulted in median scoring, the fast turf at AT&T stadium will help both offenses show off their weapons.

Dallas will once again shred the Eagles defense at home, and put up over 40 points versus Philadelphia at home for the third straight time with Prescott at the helm.

This game will surely have huge playoff and divisional implications depending on how the Eagles previous games played out.

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Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott looks to pass vs Buffalo

Week 15: at Buffalo Bills

Prediction: L, 35-24
Record: 10-4

After an emotional win over the Eagles, the Cowboys come back down to earth on the icy turf in Buffalo.

Josh Allen’s scrambling ability will give the defense fits, and powered by the weather and the home crowd, the Bills defense will do enough to keep the Cowboys down.

This game is a possible Super Bowl preview, and will trigger much nostalgia in the lead up to the Monday night matchup.

Tony Pollard Steals Zeke's "Closer" Role Against the Miami Dolphins 1
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 22: Walt Aikens #35 of the Miami Dolphins chases Tony Pollard #20 of the Dallas Cowboys as he run the ball in for a touchdown in the fourth quarter at AT&T Stadium on September 22, 2019 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

Week 16: at Miami Dolphins

Prediction: L, 31-30
Record: 10-5

Still attempting to thaw out from the frost-fest in Buffalo, the Dolphins give the Cowboys coal in their stocking for Christmas.

Old ghosts come out in the form of an offensive scheme from Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel, a branch off the Kyle Shanahan tree.

The creativity of McDaniels coupled with weapons like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane prove to be enough to give Dallas their only multiple game losing streak of the season.

2022 Cowboys Season Preview: Week 7 vs Lions
DETROIT, MI – NOVEMBER 17: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys scrambles as Trey Flowers #90 of the Detroit Lions gives chase during the first quarter of the game at Ford Field on November 17, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

Week 17: vs Detroit Lions

Prediction: W, 27-24
Record: 11-5

I could be slightly biased since I will be personally attending this game, but however it shakes out, I believe it will be a close game down to the wire.

Dallas got the best of the Lions last season in Prescott’s first game back from injury.

Dan Campbell and the Lions are media darlings expected to make a huge leap forward, but they will come up short in Dallas.

How can the Cowboys end the season finale with a win?
BALTIMORE, MD – AUGUST 27: Sam Howell #14 of the Washington Commanders attempts a pass against the Baltimore Ravens during the first half of a preseason game at M&T Bank Stadium on August 27, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Week 18: at Washington Commanders

Prediction: W, 16-13
Record: 12-5

For the umpteenth time, Dallas travels to a division rival with massive playoff implications on the line.

They haven’t always come out on top, but this time they will to finish the regular season at 12-5 for the third year in a row.

Imagining a NCAA-Tournament Format for the NFL Playoffs 1

Postseason

Entering Week 18, I have the Cowboys at 11-5 and the Eagles at 12-4.

Dallas wins in Washington, and the Eagles drop a road game at the Giants to even their records at 12-5.

The Cowboys, by virtue of their 5-1 record in the NFC East win the tiebreaker for the division title.

I don’t believe 12-5 will win the NFC’s top seed, as I have the Vikings finishing 13-4 to secure that spot.

Without a bye, Dallas will host the 7th seeded NFC team, likely the Giants or Packers, and they handle business.

In the Divisional round, Dallas will host the 3rd seed in the NFC, and their nemesis the San Francisco 49ers.

Third time is the charm for the Cowboys, as they finally dispose of the 49ers in the playoffs to advance to their first NFC Championship game since the 1995 season.

Dallas gets another home game after the Eagles knock off the 1-seed Vikings to setup an all NFC East Conference Championship Game.

That’s as far as I’ll go in this exercise. Come back and see me on January 28, 2024 so we can discuss just how that game plays out.

Mario Herrera Jr.

Staff Writer

Mario Herrera Jr. is a husband, a father of three, and he has been a Dallas Cowboys fan since 1991. He's a stats guy, although stats don't always tell the whole story. Writing about the Dallas Cowboys is his passion. Dak Prescott apologist.

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