With four games remaining in their schedule, the Dallas Cowboys are currently leading the NFC East and hold the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs.
Barring an epic collapse by the Eagles, the Cowboys will almost certainly have to go 4-0 down the stretch to clinch the division.
Even then, they’d still need the Eagles to lose one game. The 49ers would also have to lose one game over the final four weeks for Dallas to get the No. 1 seed.
If the Cowboys are to reach Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas, history seems to indicate they’ll be better off at least winning the division first.
In the eight times Dallas has reached the Super Bowl, they won the NFC East in seven of those seasons.
Running The Table
In the five Super Bowl runs of the 1970s the Cowboys were a combined 19-1 over the final four weeks of those five seasons.
In 1970, a 6-4 Dallas squad went 4-0 and won the division before falling to the Colts in Super Bowl V.
The following year, a 7-3 team also won their last four games. They then ran the table all the way to a victory over Miami in Super Bowl VI.
In 1977 – the last year of the 14-game schedule — the 8-2 Cowboys swept their next four opponents to win their division.
They then won their next three playoff games, including Super Bowl XII over Denver.
In 1978 the Cowboys were at 8-4 before closing out the year with four wins and another division title. They would lose 35-31 in Super Bowl XIII to the Steelers.
Exception To The Rule
The lone exception was in 1975 when the Cowboys finished second in the NFC East. They were the first wild card team to reach the title game.
The Oakland Raiders would become the first wild card team to win a Super Bowl five years later.
Dallas needed the infamous Hail Mary pass to upset Minnesota just to get to the NFC Championship game that year.
In 1975, the team was 7-3 with four games left. The Cowboys upended the Giants 14-3 to set up a showdown in St. Louis the following week.
With both teams at 8-3 – and Dallas having beaten the Cardinals at home earlier in the year – a Cowboys’ win would have all but sealed the division.
But the Cardinals rolled out to a 28-3 halftime lead enroute to a 31-17 victory. Both teams won their final two games and St. Louis claimed the division title.
The Cowboys got the last laugh by making it to Super Bowl X but fell 21-17 to the Steelers in the title game.
The 1990s
The Cowboys would make three Super Bowl runs over a span of four years in the decade of the 1990s.
All three came after winning the NFC East. But all three had very different season-closing runs over the final four games.
In 1992 the Cowboys would go 3-1 over the final quarter of the season to close out a 13-3 campaign. A 20-17 loss to the Redskins marring the run.
They shook off the loss and went on to steamroll the Bills 52-17 in Super Bowl XXVII.
The following season, Dallas was 8-4 after surviving an 0-2 start with Emmitt Smith holding out for the first two weeks.
The Cowboys would end up winning their last five regular season games. The 16-13 overtime win over the Giants in the season finale won the division for Dallas.
They then won three more games in the postseason, capped by the 30-13 win over the Bills in Super Bowl XXVIII.
The Cowboys’ final run in 1995 saw Dallas at 10-2 with four games to play. But back-to-back losses to the Redskins and Eagles left Dallas clinging to a one-game lead.
The Cowboys beat the Giants and the Cardinals to clinch the division and the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.
Three games later, Dallas stood as NFL Champions for the fifth time after a 27-17 win over the Steelers in Super Bowl XXX.
The Blueprint Is There in 2023
The Cowboys have both the division title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed in sight.
They will need help in the form of at least one loss by Philadelphia and San Francisco to get there, in addition to surviving a brutal gauntlet of their own.
Three of Dallas’ final four opponents are very much in their own playoff hunt. The Commanders will be a tough out too, especially if Dallas desperately needs a win in D.C.
That last game of the season could be the Commanders’ Super Bowl.
Not that an NFC East title and the No. 1 seed ensures a Super Bowl trip for Dallas, especially given their history in this century.
There has been eight seasons in Cowboys history since the merger in 1970 that Dallas has won the East and finished as the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Four of those years resulted in Super Bowl victories. The winning years for the Cowboys were: 1971, 1977, 1993, and 1995.
They were the East champions and NFC No. 1 seed in both 1978 and 1979.
Dallas lost in the Super Bowl in 1978 and was upended by the Rams in the 1979 divisional round. The loss came in Roger Staubach’s last game.
The Cowboys have had the No. 1 seed following an East division title twice in the 21st Century.
In 2007 and again in 2016, Dallas entered the playoffs as the top team in the NFC, only to lose in the divisional round.
One thing is for certain, the Cowboys chances for a ninth Super Bowl appearance will likely be determined over the next four weeks.