Arch Manning, the Texas Longhorns’ star quarterback with more NFL royalty in his bloodline than just about anybody, kicked off his 2025 season yesterday.
It wasn’t a great showing, as the dominant Ohio State defense forced turnovers, and his inexperience was evident in his rough short-game accuracy and overall decision-making.
Although it’s early in the year, it was far from the splash people were expecting.
To this point, he’s been billed as the Heisman frontrunner, the clear No. 1 pick in 2026 or 2027, with the Dallas Cowboys keeping a particularly close eye.
Even with the rough outing and loss against the Buckeyes, it’s fun to speculate on his NFL future. Could he become the future star of America’s Team?
Arch Manning: Realistic Cowboys Target, Too Good to Get, Or Overrated Bust?
There are three avenues for Manning’s prospects as a Cowboys target.
First, he is a realistic option for Dallas either in 2026 or 2027. Without the Micah Parsons trade, this path wouldn’t exist; four first-rounders over two drafts give them the ammo to move up, and a weakened roster keeps them from drafting too late.
This is also made possible by Dak Prescott’s increasing age and injury vulnerability.
Still, there is a world where he is just too damn good to get. This happens if Manning dominates and locks himself into the first overall pick, and the Cowboys, with All-Pros still all over, fail to pick in the top spot.
Lastly, the Week 1 panic could be real: maybe Arch Manning is overrated, and his NFL future isn’t as bright as the hype has made it. In this scenario, he will likely stay at Texas until the 2027 NFL Draft, and struggle to crack the top-15 in that class.
The Answer: It’s Too Soon To Tell, Despite Ohio State Showing
If you polled fans today, the majority would align with the bust theory. In my eyes, that’s a drastic overreaction to an experienced quarterback struggling in a tough game.
Manning’s hype, despite what some will say, is not all about the name.
It’s about the athleticism running the ball, and the potential throwing the ball that we have seen his entire career.
Is it possible he flunks out in Austin, or in the pros? Of course, but that likelihood is not higher today than it was last week. One game, and especially not a debut as a full-time starter, does not dictate that.
Expect the Arch Manning buzz to continue until he does reach the NFL, and if that destination is Dallas, it may never go down.
