Arch Manning, the Texas Longhorns’ star quarterback with more NFL royalty in his bloodline than just about anybody, kicked off his 2025 season yesterday.
It wasn’t a great showing, as the dominant Ohio State defense forced turnovers, and his inexperience was evident in his rough short-game accuracy and overall decision-making.
Although it’s early in the year, it was far from the splash people were expecting.
To this point, he’s been billed as the Heisman frontrunner, the clear No. 1 pick in 2026 or 2027, with the Dallas Cowboys keeping a particularly close eye.
Even with the rough outing and loss against the Buckeyes, it’s fun to speculate on his NFL future. Could he become the future star of America’s Team?
Arch Manning: Realistic Cowboys Target, Too Good to Get, Or Overrated Bust?
There are three avenues for Manning’s prospects as a Cowboys target.
First, he is a realistic option for Dallas either in 2026 or 2027. Without the Micah Parsons trade, this path wouldn’t exist; four first-rounders over two drafts give them the ammo to move up, and a weakened roster keeps them from drafting too late.
This is also made possible by Dak Prescott’s increasing age and injury vulnerability.
Still, there is a world where he is just too damn good to get. This happens if Manning dominates and locks himself into the first overall pick, and the Cowboys, with All-Pros still all over, fail to pick in the top spot.
Lastly, the Week 1 panic could be real: maybe Arch Manning is overrated, and his NFL future isn’t as bright as the hype has made it. In this scenario, he will likely stay at Texas until the 2027 NFL Draft, and struggle to crack the top-15 in that class.
The Answer: It’s Too Soon To Tell, Despite Ohio State Showing
If you polled fans today, the majority would align with the bust theory. In my eyes, that’s a drastic overreaction to an experienced quarterback struggling in a tough game.
There's no point sugarcoating it. Arch Manning mostly stunk.
It's easy to overreact to one game. Plenty of QBs have shaken off a rough outing and gone on to greatness.
But few will soon forget him laying an egg in the first meaningful start of his career. pic.twitter.com/v25OWwODhQ
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) August 30, 2025
Manning’s hype, despite what some will say, is not all about the name.
It’s about the athleticism running the ball, and the potential throwing the ball that we have seen his entire career.
Is it possible he flunks out in Austin, or in the pros? Of course, but that likelihood is not higher today than it was last week. One game, and especially not a debut as a full-time starter, does not dictate that.
Expect the Arch Manning buzz to continue until he does reach the NFL, and if that destination is Dallas, it may never go down.
First, Dak is a top 5 QB and let’s be thankful for Dak who can deal with all the Jerry World.
Manning or anyone in college and picked in the first round has about a 1 in 8 chance of ever being a franchise QB and far lower of being as good as Dak. As to Manning himself, he was shocking in that his mechanics were totally irratic causing his pass accuracy to be embarrassing. Having terrible mechanics was the problem and not easily fixed at this stage.Dak is top 5 in small window throws where accuracy is measured in inches . You do not replace Dak except with a true generational talent .
Cmon, man… Dak isn’t top 5… but I also did notice that Arch’s mechanics were messed up. It is further south than a 3/4 release. I can’t believe his uncles or qb coaches all these years haven’t fixed it.
I agree with you in the odds that a draft pick would be better though.
The only way this works out is if Arch comes out in ’27, after spending a summer with Dak’s or TB12’s qb coach. Arch got a taste of what a pro defense is like yesterday, and proved he isn’t nearly ready.
After Arch crapped the bed yesterday, I am guessing he will need to stay in college until 2027. As for being the next Cowboy’s QB, only time will tell, but I doubt his family would be thrilled for him to go to Dallas. I would not be surprised at all if he refused to play for us, ala Eli..
https://x.com/CollegeSportsO/status/1962237762582556898
There is also the possibility that when he comes out he will be top QB drafted not because of ability but because of his name and media hype. Which means a QB better than Manning may fall lower in the draft. Remember Aaron Rodgers fell to 24 in the draft. Mahomes was drafted 10th in the draft. So if dows decide to draft a QB then there is still a possibility a good one will still be on the board.
I agree. There definitely could be value. I guess it just depends who comes out with Arch.
a Dallas Cowboys fan, since the 70’s I doubt Jerry Jones will be able to draft Arch Manning in the 2027 draft