Roster Review 2025: Dak Prescott. This is Part 1 of a series.
Dak Prescott entered the 2024 season with high expectations. Those were raised all the more after signing a massive contract extension just hours before the season began.
Prescott was coming off a statistically strong 2023 campaign that saw him finish as the runner-up for the NFL’s MVP award.
In 2022, he played in only 12 games and had 15 interceptions against 23 touchdown passes.
In 2023, he rebounded by playing in all 17 games, throwing for over 4,500 yards, 36 touchdowns and just nine interceptions.
Despite the horrible first half in the playoff loss to Green Bay, it looked like Prescott was back. By the midway point of the 2024 season, however, he was back on the sidelines.
In eight games, Prescott would throw eight interceptions. He would have two interceptions in four of those games with Dallas going 1-3 in those contests.
The Cowboys would only go 2-2 in the four games he didn’t throw an interception.
Prescott finished with just 1,978 yards and 11 touchdowns. His completion percentage, yards per game, and rating numbers were all significantly lower than the previous season.
The most dramatic drop came in his QBR.
In 2023, Prescott finished with a 72.7 QBR and in the previous year it was just 59.9. In 2024, his QBR was 45.4, a career low.
There is no knowing if Prescott could have caught fire in the second half of the year.
But it was clear, even in the early going, he was not repeating his previous season’s numbers.
Putting the season in perspective, in 2020, when he only played in five games, Prescott had thrown for 1,856 yards, nine touchdowns, and just four picks.
In three more games in 2024, he only had 122 more yards, two more touchdowns, and four more interceptions. He was clearly on pace to have his worst season as a pro before the injury ended his year.
Outlook For 2025
The big question is going to be how well he recovers from the partial avulsion of his right hamstring.
While it was only a part of the tendon tore away from the bone. But it is still a serious injury that required surgery.
It was also the third injury suffered in relation to his right leg.
In 2020, he fractured his right ankle in the fifth game of the season and missed the rest of the year. In 2021, he strained his right calf and missed one game only because a bye week fell the next week.
His injury last year was to his right leg.
Human bodies tend to get weaker with age and the daily abuse that professional athletes endure in training, practice, and gameplay.
So, the biggest question is: Can he stay healthy and on the field for all 17 games in 2025? Given the size of his contract, he had better be.
Assuming he fully recovers, can he return to that 2024 form? Or will we see the 2022/2024 version instead?
The recent coaching overhaul in Dallas could either help him return to top form, or the chaos of it could produce the opposite effect.
When the upcoming season kicks off, Prescott will be under the gun. As the top-paid player in the league, he’s going to be required to exceed his 2023 numbers.
He’s also going to need a deeper run in the playoffs.
It would also help if he would snap his streak of playoff games with two first-half interceptions thrown as well.
Long-Term Outlook
Prescott’s cap hit this year is currently just under $90 million. In 2026, it drops to $67 million and falls to $61 million in 2027.
His 2028 cap hit will be $71.6 million, but the Cowboys would have a potential out that would allow them to cut him and take only a $34 million cap hit.
If, over the next three seasons, the Cowboys still haven’t advanced beyond the Divisional round of the playoffs, expect Prescott to be gone after the 2027 season.
Quite frankly, at the age of 35, even if he can improve his playoff record, I doubt he’d get another extension when his current contract expires after the 2028 season ends.
If Prescott is going to win when it counts in Dallas, he has three seasons at most to get the job done.