Let’s go back to April 28th, 2016. After a long season, the Dallas fanbase was split on the Cowboys draft plan. Will the team take Ezekiel Elliott, paired with a defensive player in the second round, or Jalen Ramsey, followed by Derrick Henry?
Looking back now, the choice was clear: take the superstar cornerback and the still dominant, but lower-ranked running back.
The Cowboys could have a Super Bowl right now if that draft included Ramsey, Henry, and Dak Prescott, as opposed to Elliott and Jaylon Smith.
2016 Cowboys take Jalen Ramsey at No. 4 over Zeke and "settle" for Derrick Henry in Round 2 https://t.co/lmdgX6DMJU
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 7, 2024
Of course, Dallas can’t go back in time and change their strategy, but they will have to make a similar decision soon. Will the front office target Ashton Jeanty in the first round, or a later-round running back in a stacked class at the position?
April may seem far away now, but the work on the decision has already started, so let’s look at how both options could work for the 2025 Cowboys draft.
Repeating History: The Ashton Jeanty Route
If you’ve been following the Cowboys’ offseason moves, you know that they are prioritizing the running game right now.
Hiring Brian Schottenheimer as head coach, former Cardinals offensive line coach Klayton Adams as offensive coordinator, and interviewing Texas Longhorns running back coach Tashard Choice are all strong indicators of that.
Many are assuming the natural next step is shooting for the stars and drafting Jeanty with the 12th pick.
https://twitter.com/KevinGraySports/status/1885376121098694726
Doing this would essentially be a repeat of the 2016 Elliott pick, as the front office would be choosing the high-profile running back with hopes that he extends their aging quarterback’s career.
While Tony Romo’s career never had the chance to be preserved by Elliott, we can still admit the pick was good.
He became one of the best running backs in franchise history.
With Jeanty’s talent and an increasing focus on the offensive line and running game, it is hard to argue that he wouldn’t give a huge boost to the Dallas offense.
If the Cowboys draft does run through Ashton Jeanty, you can expect a large workload for the Boise State alum and groans from half the fanbase as they recall the “what if” from 2016.
Trench Building: Avenging The Past
If you really want to see the Cowboys’ fanbase battle it out, see what would happen in the universe where they pass on Jeanty in favor of a prospect in the trenches.
Some would love it, and shout about how running backs shouldn’t be first-round picks, while others send very angry tweets toward Jerry Jones for passing on a big-name, superstar running back like Jeanty.
The truth is, learning from the past and drafting a player in the trenches could prove to be the right move, especially if Dallas lands a talented second-round running back.
They could aim for a player like Ohio State Tackle Josh Simmons, or Georgia EDGE Mykel Williams at 12, and focus on the skill positions later.
Josh Simmons is sooooo good. Great breakdown here between Simmons and @BrandonThornNFL.#DallasCowboys https://t.co/eoxAqTRoIJ
— Brandon Loree (@Brandoniswrite) February 1, 2025
There is no guarantee that a Cowboys draft class that forms the opposite from 2016 will become a better class; what it can do is ensure you’re getting the most bang for your buck. Trends show mid-to-late round running backs are extremely effective.
Of the NFL’s top 15 rushers this season, just five were first-round picks.
So, if the Cowboys can still build a dominant running game and improve on the offensive or defensive line in the first round, shouldn’t they do that instead?
You can certainly make that argument, though there is more nuance to it than that. No draft pick is a guaranteed success, and passing on Jeanty for a later pick could be a disaster if he turns out, but your “steal” doesn’t.
The Bottom Line: How Will Dallas Draft?
This first decision of the Schottenheimer era will tell us a lot.
Will Jones and his new head coach make headlines and draft the Heisman trophy runner-up, or will they play the value game and wait out their next starting running back?
History tells us that Dallas has no problem taking a running back at the top end of the draft, but that could change with Elliott’s tenure ending without a Super Bowl victory, or even an NFC Championship appearance.
If the Cowboys draft Jeanty, it could prove beneficial in the stat sheet, but not in their long-term postseason goals.
Jeanty may be gone by the time Dallas picks, so all this talk may be for nought. But if he is there, they probably won’t be able to resist. Who knows which scenario would work best? Will Zach and Osa still be around? Their lines on both sides of the ball are not looking all that solid, so those positions should be a draft priority. Many holes, a new coaching staff, and much improved division foes, add up to looking like a challenging year coming up.
Name one Boise State RB that was worth the high draft capital given. Even the “next great back” Jay Ajayi came into the league with knee problems from the heavy workload they put on him at Boise St. He lasted an even shorter time than Zeke. Several other much-hyped Boise St. RB’s flamed out at the NFL level or went undrafted, and they didn’t have nearly as many carries on their body as Jeanty (750 carries, 80 receptions).
For reference: Zeke had 492 carries and 58 receptions in college.
I’ll be very surprised if Jeanty makes it to a 2nd contract. I’ll be absolutely shocked if he lives up to it. That’s not somebody you spend a top 15 pick on. Better to get a money 5 position that tends to have a longer career.
Yeah only 6 of the top 15 backs were first rounders. So what! The top 6 backs were all 1st and 2nd rounders. Henry was the latest drafted number 48. I would argue that if it wasn’t for the narrative that backs are devalued that Henry and Taylor would have been top 15 picks. Either way! The top 6 backs were the only backs who balled out. The rest of the top 15 were 1100 yard backs. In a 17 game schedule. Yes if you want a 1100 yard back or a platoon back then pass on Jeanty and wait. If you want a game changing back then you take Jeanty. Running back is just like any other position in football. More than likely the better ones are going to go higher in the draft. Stop with the fantasy football dork BS. You win with a great QB or a great running game which helps your D be great.3 of the best D’s 85 Bears 00 Ravens and 13 Seahawks were all helped by Walter Payton, Jamal Lewis and Marshawn Lynch. To me it’s simple, if Jeanty is there at 12 you take him. If not you grab your receiver and get one of your top backs in round 2. I don’t care how many carries Jeanty has at BSU. It’s how you take care of your body not your carries. Zeke fell off the cliff because he was a over weight drunk in the off season.
Plenty of RB’s coming out in this class, I personally wouldn’t rush to get Jeanty (even though he’s a special player).. I’d go WR probably McMillan if he’s still there. But, what do I know!!!!
The Cowboys could not have a Super Bowl by now if we had all pro players at every position. Just do a little research on Dakota Rhayne Prescot. He has a miserable record against teams that are good teams. His record is 28-34 against winning teams. That will never get us a Super Bowl