The Dallas Cowboys trading down is most likely result on Thursday

The 2025 Dallas Cowboys had one of the worst defenses in franchise history, and the 2026 NFL Draft has six blue-chip defensive prospects that could help fix that problem. Here’s the issue: it is entirely possible, if not likely, that none of those six are on the board at 12th overall.

It has been well reported that because of this issue, Dallas would like to move up from 12 into the top-ten with the hopes of securing one of these guys, but that may not be possible.

What is more likely, at this point, is the Cowboys’ “stick-and-pick” at 12 with the best player available, and aim to move down the board at 20 to recoup the Day 2 capital they’ve lost in the Quinnen Williams and George Pickens trades.

It’s Draft Day Eve, so this decision is coming up quickly for Dallas.

The Trade-Up Problem: How Aggressive Do You Want To Be?

It is flat-out tough to trade into the top-ten, and it usually takes a really aggressive bid to do so.

We’ve all seen the mock trade of the Cowboys going up from 12 to 6 with Cleveland, and sliding down from 20 to 39 to make up the value. The idea is great, but the Browns would need more, and I’m not sure Dallas wants to do that.

Aside from that, a closer move-up, like a deal with the Chiefs at 9, is dependent on them wanting to trade back, which is far from a guarantee.

In short, it’s a problem of capital given up, and teams being motivated to deal.

The Trade-Down Option: More Buyers Late, Need To Gain Picks

On the opposite end, teams are far more willing to strike deals in the 20s, as the trade package is usually less, and talent is more fleeting as the picks go by.

At 20, the Cowboys are right on the cusp for a lot of the talent in this draft class, especially at wide receiver. I can almost guarantee they’ll get a call from somebody wanting to trade up tomorrow; it’s just a matter of what that team is offering and who is available with the pick.

If the Cowboys could, hypothetically, move back, remain in the first-round, and pick up a late-second or early-third round pick, and an extra Day 3 pick, I think they would do it, barring somebody falling to 20.

It is just a more realistic outcome than the blockbuster move to land the Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles-level prospect.