What to watch for during Cowboys season finale against Commanders

Happy New Year!

The Dallas Cowboys season finale takes place in four days, and they do so at home against the Washington Commanders.

Washington got a huge overtime win in Week 17 that locked up a playoff spot for them, but they still have something to play for against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 18.

Washington can hold on to the No. 6 seed in the NFC with a win, setting up a matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, who have clinched the NFC West. That’s a much easier matchup than facing the No. 2-seeded Philadelphia Eagles, although Washington did beat them in Week 16.

The starters are going to play for Washington, so they are still trying to win this football game. You will see a lot of teams sit their starters so they don’t get hurt before the playoffs, but not the Commanders.

Cowboys in Pro Bowl voting (top 10 each position)

Returner - KaVontae Turpin - 1st
K - Brandon Aubrey - 5th
WR - CeeDee Lamb - 7th
FB - Hunter Luepke - 7th
DE - Micah Parsons - 9th
— Todd Archer (@toddarcher) December 31, 2024

GAME INFO:

Date: Sunday, January 5th | Time: Noon

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

TV: FOX | Stream: NFL+ & FuboTV

Radio: 105.3 The Fan (KRLD-FM), 107.5 La Grande in Spanish (KMVK-FM)

ODDS:

Moneyline (ML): Cowboys +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Commanders -218 (bet $218 to win $100)

Against the spread (ATS): Cowboys +4.5 (-110) | Commanders -4.5 (-110)

Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Betting Facts

Washington is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games, while the over is 11-5 in Cowboys games this year.

I would lean toward taking the points and the Commanders -4.5. They have a heck of a lot more to play for than Dallas.

Since 2003, January home dogs with a win percentage between 26% and 50% are 25-8 ATS, assuming they’re coming off a loss.

When those dogs are coming off a loss by 14 or more points: 17-1 ATS, including 13-1 ATS in divisional games.

My early favorite pick for the #Cowboys in Round 1 is Georgia LB Jalon Walker. I'll be watching him closely today, as well. https://t.co/I1Yg1rvGML
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) January 1, 2025

With no CeeDee Lamb, this offense, with a backup in Cooper Rush, will struggle again, as he does not have his guy who can bank on to make a play nine times out of ten.

I do think Rico Dowdle will end the season well, and have a pretty solid game on Sunday.

Dowdle faces the Commanders, who rank 27th in yards allowed to opposing running backs. Washington just allowed Bijan Robinson to rush for 90 yards and two scores, meaning Dowdle should be set for success.

Zeke was also released yesterday by the team.

Elliott led the NFL in rushing yards in 2016 and 2018 with the Cowboys and made three Pro Bowls with the team (2016, 2018, 2019). Dallas released him after the 2022 NFL season and Elliott spent the 2023 season with the New England Patriots.

One Thing Left

The one thing left that this team has to prove is that they have players on the roster that can make an impact in 2025.

With the cap space that this team is going to be sitting in, they need guys who are playing their behind off right now to do it next year when it matters again.

2025 Home Games For Dallas Cowboys:

Eagles
Commanders
Giants
Chiefs
Chargers
Packers
Vikings
49ers/Cardinals

YIKES!!!!
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) December 31, 2024

They have one last game to prove why they should be given a chance going forward. One last chance to try and save Mike McCarthy’s job, one last game to have us talking about them.

I do think this game will be close for about a half or so with the Washington starters playing, but the guys on their roster will start to overpower what Dallas has left on theirs.

Look for this game to be high scoring, but ends the same way it has all to much this year for Dallas, in a loss.

This season could not have went any worse for this team, and we go into another year full of disappointment, and we all are wondering what this offseason will look like as Jones family made it very clear how tight they are with money against the cap.